Ukraine is close to peace, yet key issues linger: NYT on security guarantees
Ukrainian Armed Forces (Photo: Getty Images)
Ukraine’s negotiation process with international partners has entered a new stage, bringing the sides closer to discussing a possible framework for a peaceful settlement, according to The New York Times.
Kyiv emphasizes that any agreements with Russia will be meaningless without clearly defined security guarantees that actually work.
Security guarantees as a key issue
Ukraine has repeatedly stated that lasting peace is only possible with reliable mechanisms to protect against renewed Russian aggression.
The issue of security guarantees remains the most challenging aspect of the negotiations and, at the same time, the one that will ultimately determine their outcome.
So far, it is unclear which countries are willing to take on specific commitments and how these guarantees would be implemented in practice.
Advisors’ visit and discussion of the plan
On January 3, 18 national security advisors from partner countries arrived in Ukraine. Their participation is focused on discussing a draft peace plan, the system of security guarantees, and the concept for the country’s postwar reconstruction.
According to President Zelenskyy, work on key documents - security guarantees, economic recovery, and the phased end of the war - is progressing at an accelerated pace, with agreement on the basic provisions possible as early as January.
Why Kyiv insists on strong guarantees
Ukraine’s position is largely shaped by past experience, particularly the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. At that time, Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances that lacked concrete mechanisms for military support.
The absence of legally binding commitments, according to the Ukrainian side, became one of the factors that allowed Russia to launch its aggression in 2014.
What the partners are discussing
The draft peace plan considers security guarantees modeled on NATO’s collective defense principles. Potential guarantors include the US, NATO, and certain European countries.
The discussions also cover maintaining the Ukrainian Armed Forces at around 800,000 troops with financial support from partners, concluding a bilateral security agreement with the US, and Ukraine’s EU membership within a defined timeframe.
Special attention is being given to the format of a coalition of willing countries and the potential deployment of European contingents either on Ukrainian territory or in nearby EU countries.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has emphasized that effective security guarantees must include the establishment of a monitoring mission and clearly defined mechanisms for partner responses to any violations of agreements, noting that without such instruments, enforcement would be merely formal.
Zelenskyy also proposed to US President Donald Trump a format for long-term security guarantees for Ukraine lasting 30 to 50 years, stressing the need for durable and sustained commitments from international partners.
