Ukraine disrupts Russia's profits during global energy crisis — ISW
Photo: An oil tank in Russia (Getty Images)
With its strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, Ukraine has deprived Moscow of the opportunity to capitalize on rising global oil prices. The Russian economy is under pressure from several factors at once, some of which are the result of the Kremlin’s own suboptimal policies, according to the ISW.
Strikes on oil have effect
Since March 2026, Ukraine has significantly increased the frequency, range, and intensity of strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure.
According to ISW estimates, this has had a disproportionate impact on Russian oil exports and refining capacity, undermining Moscow’s ability to profit from rising global prices.
"Continued Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil infrastructure will likely continue to strain Russian revenues and prevent Russia from reaping any long-term benefits from the current surge in oil prices," analysts predict.
Russia's own economic policy backfiring
An additional factor is the Kremlin’s suboptimal economic policy. The VAT hike in January 2026 is already having a cascading effect: the shadow economy is growing, goods and services are becoming more expensive, and the desired tax revenues are not materializing.
Russian Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov acknowledged that the government has revised its GDP growth forecasts due to a labor shortage and external conditions: sanctions and the war in the Middle East.
Economic pressure on Russia is mounting from several fronts. The share of non-performing assets in the Russian banking system has reached a critical level, and signs of a systemic crisis are already evident in the sector.
The ISW has exposed the Kremlin’s lies about the economy. The real figures point to major budget problems and rising costs due to the war.
Meanwhile, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Budrys pointed out that NATO has the means to raze Russian bases in Kaliningrad to the ground, and that the Kremlin naively considers this region to be its impregnable stronghold.
