Russians claim advances in Kharkiv region: ISW assesses the situation
Photo: Russians lie about gains in Kharkiv region (Getty Images)
Russian military command has been lying for the fifth month in a row about battlefield “successes,” claiming that Russian forces are advancing west of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region. However, this does not correspond to reality, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
On May 16, Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov made a series of false claims regarding the situation in the Kupiansk, Borova, and Lyman directions.
In particular, he claimed that Russian forces were advancing west of Kupiansk toward Shevchenkove, creating a false impression that Russian troops had captured Kupiansk and were holding positions west of the city.
Gerasimov also claimed that Russian forces had entered Velyka Shapkivka (northwest of Kupiansk), captured the entire Borova (south of Kupiansk) and Kutkivka (north of Kupiansk), and taken about 50% of Shykivka and 85% of Lyman.
At the same time, ISW data does not confirm these claims. Analysts state that Russian forces do not hold fortified positions in Kupiansk and that only a small number of Russian saboteurs remain in the city.
The claims that Russian troops occupy positions in Velyka Shapkivka, Shykivka, Kutkivka, or Lyman are also false. In reality, Russian forces have penetrated only about 14.2% of Kupiansk, 6.5% of Kutkivka, and 0.06% of Lyman.
Currently, Russian forces are closest to Shykivka (about two kilometers away) and Velyka Shapkivka (about four kilometers away).
Photo: ISW
ISW notes that Gerasimov identified Shevchenkove as Russia’s next operational objective, but Russian forces are still far from capturing Kupiansk, and without this, they will not be able to advance along the H-20 highway toward Shevchenkove.
According to analysts, Russia has proven unable to allocate the necessary forces and resources to repel Ukrainian counterattacks and conduct offensive operations on a sufficiently large scale to achieve tactically and operationally significant gains near or inside Kupiansk.
Gerasimov and other high-ranking Russian officials have repeatedly made exaggerated claims about Russian advances along the front line. However, Ukrainian defensive lines are withstanding Russia’s spring–summer 2026 offensive, and Ukrainian forces are holding the tactical initiative in several sectors of the front, including the Kupiansk direction.
ISW notes that these exaggerated claims about fictitious successes indicate that senior Russian military leadership either does not understand or is unwilling to acknowledge the reality of the battlefield, and therefore allows its own false assessments to influence operational and strategic planning.
Russia's offensive has failed
Recall that for the first time in a long period, Ukraine liberated more territory in a month than Russia was able to capture. The Russian offensive is losing momentum, while drone superiority allows the Armed Forces of Ukraine to seize the initiative.
According to ISW, Russian forces have failed to achieve any significant breakthrough on the front over the past year, while Ukrainian forces have made gains during the winter and spring of 2026.
At the same time, Russians continue attempts to advance toward Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region from the northern direction. However, their actions are currently yielding fewer results than the occupiers themselves had expected.
