Trump takes early lead in US presidential race, though Harris still has narrow path to victory
Photo: Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, US presidential candidates (Collage by RBC-Ukraine)
Donald Trump's chances of winning the US presidential election are estimated at around 90%. However, Kamala Harris still has a chance to surpass him.
RBC-Ukraine explains which states Harris needs to win to overtake Trump and whether she has a realistic shot at doing so.
Despite numerous pre-election forecasts, a clear frontrunner in the US presidential race emerged just hours after the polls closed — the Republican candidate, Donald Trump. According to The New York Times, his chances of victory are estimated at 90%.
However, it is too early to count Kamala Harris out completely. The winner is still undecided in six swing states, and if Harris ultimately performs well in these states, she could overtake Trump, albeit by a narrow but sufficient margin.
Current vote distribution
At the moment, the post-election standings, according to estimates by The New York Times, are as follows: Harris has 205 electoral votes, and Trump has 230 votes. A candidate needs at least 270 votes to win.
It appears that both Harris and Trump will claim all the "safe" states where they were long projected to win. For instance, Harris is expected to win New Mexico, and Trump, Alaska. However, Harris is almost certain to trail behind Trump in the contested state of Georgia.
After this, the projected distribution will be: Harris with 226 electoral votes and Trump with 251 votes.
Three paths for Harris
In this situation, Harris has three different paths to victory, but in any case, she must win Pennsylvania. The most straightforward scenario is to win in all three Rust Belt states — Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. This would put her slightly ahead of Trump in the Electoral College, with 270 votes to his 268.
Currently, the vote count is underway in all three states, with Trump leading Harris by a few percentage points in each. However, Harris has a potential advantage: mail-in ballots, which tend to favor Democrats, will be counted later. This means she could still overtake Trump in all three states. The counting process, especially in Pennsylvania, may take several days.
The other two scenarios for a Harris victory are far less likely, as they require her to win in Arizona. A win in Arizona, along with Pennsylvania and Michigan, would give her 271 electoral votes, while victories in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada would give her 272 votes.
However, Harris’s chances in Arizona appear rather slim. Even before the election, among all the swing states, she was polling worst here. Some media outlets even removed Arizona from the list of swing states, assuming a Trump victory there. Currently, with 53% of votes counted, Trump leads with 50%, while Harris has 49.2%.
According to preliminary election results, Donald Trump is leading in most of the swing states. Moreover, in North Carolina, American media have already declared Trump the winner.
However, exit polls by Edison Research had predicted a Harris victory in most of the swing states.
