Trump and Russia’s new war: Munich Security Conference releases explosive report
Photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump (Getty Images)
The era when Europe could prosper for decades under the American "security umbrella" has definitively come to an end. At the same time, Russia may be preparing for a new war, according to a report by the Munich Security Conference.
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Lethal aid to Ukraine is Europe’s responsibility
The second administration of Donald Trump has made it clear that it expects a shift in paradigm. In particular, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told allies during a meeting of the Contact Group on February 12, 2025, that ensuring European security must become an imperative for NATO members in Europe themselves.
The report’s authors note that under Washington’s new doctrine, Europeans are expected to take on the "overwhelming share" of both lethal and non-lethal assistance to Ukraine.
The report also states that US military aid has sharply declined since January 2025, and that Washington has begun using security as a tool of economic coercion, linking security guarantees to trade concessions from the EU.
Russia lays the groundwork for a war in the Baltics
As the US distances itself, Kremlin aggression has reached new levels. As analysts stress in the report, Russia has fully shifted its economy onto a war footing, allocating 40% of the federal budget to defense. They warn that Russia has not only abandoned any retreat from its maximalist goals in Ukraine, but is also preparing forces for new conflicts.
According to intelligence assessments cited in the report, Moscow could be ready for:
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A regional war in the Baltics: within two years after a possible ceasefire in Ukraine;
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A local war: against one of its neighbors, in as little as six months.
The document also states that Moscow has already intensified its hybrid campaign across Europe, including sabotage of energy infrastructure and mass violations of Polish and Estonian airspace in September 2025.
Trump’s peace plan: Aligned with Moscow’s interests
A particular alarm in European capitals was triggered by a Washington-backed 28-point peace plan that emerged in November 2025.
The document largely ignored European interests and envisaged sweeping territorial concessions by Ukraine, limits on the size of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, and the exclusion of Ukraine’s NATO membership.
The report’s authors conclude that Washington is increasingly acting as an "arbiter" rather than an ally.
Europe in the grey zone: Challenges to autonomy
Although European NATO members have increased defense budgets by 41%, the report describes these efforts as insufficient. Instead of building a unified system, EU countries have reinforced "industrial nationalism," continuing to purchase US systems (such as the F-35 and Patriot) in attempts to retain Washington’s loyalty.
Summarizing the report’s findings, the authors warn that further hesitation will leave Europe vulnerable in a grey zone between competing spheres of influence, gradually undermining its ability to determine its own destiny.
Ukraine’s Presidential Office head Kyrylo Budanov previously stated that if hostilities in Ukraine end, the next target of Russian aggression could be the Baltic states.
