Stubb names 7 key facts showing Ukraine gains upper hand on battlefield
Alexander Stubb (photo: Getty Images)
Finnish President Alexander Stubb has said that Ukraine is in a better military position for the first time since Russia's full-scale invasion began. Among his arguments are monthly Russian losses of 35,000 troops compared to 27,000 new recruits, according to his interview with NZZ.
Seven arguments pointing to Ukraine's advantage
President Stubb says the war for Kyiv has gone through three stages: "The first year of the war was about survival. The next three years were about resilience. Now it is a question of mathematics — battlefield mathematics."
He outlined seven factors he believes demonstrate Ukraine's advantage:
- Ukrainian forces are killing or wounding around 35,000 Russian soldiers per month — a level that has held for the past six months
- Russia can recruit only about 27,000 men per month, meaning it faces a manpower deficit
- In December, the battlefield loss ratio was 1 to 3 (three Russians per one Ukrainian); now it is 1 to 8
- 95% of losses result from drone and missile strikes, with fewer direct man-to-man engagements
- The eastern and southern fronts have a 20–40 km "kill zone," where the fatality rate for those entering it is around 95%. Russia sends its groups of 1–7 soldiers at a time there, while Ukraine does not
- In March, Ukraine launched more missiles and drones against Russia than Russian air defenses were able to intercept. Ukraine scales production toward 10 million drones per year
- In April, Ukraine retook more territory than it lost for the first time since the war began.
Why Europe should not fear Russian attack on NATO
Stubb is skeptical of concerns that Russia could test NATO Article 5 after the war in Ukraine ends. "Why would Russia test Article 5 if it has failed to conquer Ukraine in four years?" the Finnish president said.
He drew a historical comparison: during World War II, it took Moscow four years to reach Berlin — a distance of about 1,600 kilometers. In the war against Ukraine over the same period, Russian forces have advanced roughly 60 kilometers.
Stubb suggested Russia could carry out hybrid tests — cyberattacks and sabotage — but not a conventional military invasion. "People just need to calm down. I understand the public debate, but I see all the intelligence reports — I read them very carefully," he stressed.
Russia's inner weakness
President Stubb added that most of the Russian population is currently opposed to the war. This, he said, has been influenced by Ukrainian drone and missile strikes deep inside Russian territory toward Moscow and St. Petersburg, as well as internet restrictions. "Putin had to block Telegram and WhatsApp, and this started to affect real life," the president noted.
About Putin talks
Stubb supports dialogue with the Russian president, but under certain conditions.
"Negotiations with Russia are only possible when it is not in a strong position. We should do this together with the Americans, while also asking whether US foreign policy toward Russia and Ukraine currently serves Europe's interests. If not — and in some respects it does not — then we must take part," the Finnish president said.
According to him, the European Union should attempt negotiations first. If that fails, the E3 format (France, Germany, the United Kingdom) should take over. If that also fails, another format should be considered.
Notably, last week Stubb already shared estimates of frontline losses, saying the situation for Kyiv is "much better than at any point during the full-scale war."
He also suggested he could lead EU negotiations with Russia if necessary.
