South Korea may increase support for Ukraine due to North Korean troops in Russia - ISW

"South Korea signaled possible readiness to increase support for Ukraine amid continued Ukrainian intelligence on the deployment of North Korean forces near the Russian border with Ukraine," the report states.

In publishing their conclusion, analysts reference a statement from South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul, who said on November 1 that all possible scenarios are being considered in response to inquiries about the potential shipment of weapons to Ukraine following the placement of North Korean troops in Russia. Cho emphasized that the country would monitor the involvement of North Korean military personnel in Russia and the benefits North Korea receives from the Russian state to determine its course of action.

On Saturday, November 2, Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence reported that last week, Russian forces had transferred 7,000 additional North Korean servicemen to unspecified areas near the border with Ukraine.

According to intelligence reports, the Russians have armed the North Koreans with:

• 60mm mortars;
• AK-12 assault rifles;
• RPK/PKM machine guns;
• SVD/NVCH sniper rifles;
• Phoenix anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) and RPG-7 anti-tank rocket launchers.

Additionally, the North Korean forces have been equipped with various night vision devices, thermal imaging equipment, and other optical gear.

According to British intelligence, North Korean soldiers are likely to face challenges during combat operations against the Ukrainian Armed Forces, including language barriers and other factors.

In a recent assessment, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated that Russia's involvement of North Korean troops in the war against Ukraine could result in high casualty rates among North Korean military personnel. Consequently, these Asian allies are unlikely to fully compensate for the personnel losses experienced by Russian forces.