North Korea can refuse to provide troops to assist Russia - ISW

The report notes that on November 1, a meeting took place in Moscow between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui.

During the dialogue, the North Korean side secured strong guarantees of support from the Kremlin amid the deployment of its military in Russia. Choe also stated that dictator Kim Jong Un had instructed her to support Russia's sacred war against Ukraine until victory was achieved.

The Institute for the Study of War highlighted Choe's reference to the concept of sacred war. Analysts recalled that the Russian Orthodox Church had used similar rhetoric to justify Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine as an existential and civilizational struggle, into which North Korea has now voluntarily entered.

Phantom threat

The ISW report also noted that Choe's visit to Moscow comes amid reports of the deployment of 8,000 North Korean troops in the Kursk region, who are expected to soon engage in combat alongside Russian forces against the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated at a press conference on October 31 that Russian troops have trained their North Korean counterparts in using artillery systems, operating drones, and conducting basic tactical infantry maneuvers.

At the same time, ISW analysts believe that despite Pyongyang's commitment to support Russia, North Korean forces are unlikely to provide a long-term solution to Russia's manpower issues.

According to Austin, Russian forces are suffering over 1,200 casualties per day (approximately 36,000 casualties per month). Recent US estimates indicate that Russia is drafting between 25,000 and 30,000 new soldiers each month, meaning it cannot replace current front-line losses at a 1:1 ratio. Thus, the 8,000 North Korean soldiers represent roughly a week's worth of losses across the entire front line.

"North Korea has committed an estimated total of 12,000 troops to Russia. It remains unclear exactly how Russia intends to leverage North Korean manpower, but the commitment of North Korean troops into the type of highly attritional offensive operations that Russia has been pursuing is very likely to lead to high North Korean casualty rates," the report states.

Futile losses

Recently, the ISW assessed that North Korea is likely seeking to participate in the war alongside Russia to gain valuable combat experience in modern warfare. However, the Institute noted that how Russian command employs North Korean forces in battle will affect their ability to meaningfully absorb and disseminate combat knowledge.

"If North Korean troops face the same casualty rates as Russian forces, then the battlefield lessons Pyongyang hopes to learn will be undermined, and Kim is unlikely to commit his forces to face such losses on the battlefield indefinitely," the ISW concluded.

North Korean troops in the Russia-Ukraine war

Recently, the North Korean dictatorship reached an agreement with Russia to send its troops to participate in the war against Ukraine.

According to Ukraine's Defense Intelligence, approximately 12,000 North Korean soldiers have already arrived in Russian territory. They are being prepared for combat operations in the Kursk region.

The ISW also does not rule out that the experience gained in the war against Ukraine could be applied by North Korean military forces in future conflicts in which they might become involved.