Sanctions tighten the oil noose as Russia’s hidden deficit comes to light – BND
Illustrative photo: the Russian economy is showing a deep decline due to Western sanctions (sputnik.by)
The Russian economy is showing a deep decline due to Western sanctions, leading to a critical increase in the budget deficit and the collapse of the oil sector, according to data from Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND).
Falsified statistics and real losses
German intelligence obtained data confirming that the Kremlin manipulates figures to conceal the consequences of the war. The actual federal budget deficit of the Russian Federation for 2025 turned out to be 26% higher than officially reported, reaching almost 3.6% of GDP.
"This shows the true costs the Kremlin willingly bears for its aggressive war against Ukraine — costs that will have consequences for many years," the BND notes.
Photo: the Russian economy is showing a deep decline due to Western sanctions (bnd.bund.de)
Blow to oil and gas revenues
In the fifth year of the war, Russia’s oil industry is under unprecedented pressure due to sanctions and drone attacks.
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Discounts on raw materials – due to restrictions, Russia is forced to sell oil far below market value.
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Loss of buyers – India, one of the last major clients, has significantly reduced imports under US pressure.
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Extraterritorial sanctions – Washington’s pressure is the main reason for the sharp drop in revenues from oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
Intelligence analysts emphasize that further restrictions on the shadow fleet could raise the cost of the war for the aggressor even more.
"Putin’s plan to restore Russia to its former glory cannot succeed under these circumstances," the analysts conclude.
Sanctions pressure and the fight against Russia’s shadow fleet
Recently, the European Union introduced a new package of restrictions aimed at radically reducing the aggressor’s revenues from energy trade.
Specifically, Brussels is preparing the toughest measures against Russia’s oil sector, moving from a price cap to an actual ban on operations with sanctioned vessels.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the increased pressure on Russia’s maritime exports "a response to the mafia," emphasizing that it is the only way to cut the Kremlin off from funds for the war.
Meanwhile, NATO countries are already taking decisive action at sea — for example, Belgian forces boarded a ship for the first time that is suspected of violating the sanctions regime and cooperating with Russia.
