Russian army improved quality of its assaults, but total superiority remains far off - ISW

According to Ukrainian military analyst Yuriy Butusov, on December 14, Russian forces launched a tripartite mechanized assault to the north, east, and south of the town of Siversk in the Donetsk region, involving more than 400 personnel, up to 30 armored vehicles, 13 buggies, and 60 motorcycles.

Geolocation footage released on December 15 shows that the Russian army made some progress during a mechanized assault with forces roughly equivalent to a company to the north of Vesele (south of Siversk), which was likely part of a larger attack.

Butusov reported that Russian forces managed to break through four Ukrainian defensive positions and deploy infantry, but the assault was repelled by Ukrainian drone and artillery fire, as well as close combat.

According to the analyst, the Russian forces aimed to penetrate 2-3 kilometers into the Ukrainian defense. Meanwhile, one Russian military blogger claimed that the Russian army had advanced 2 kilometers from the direction of Zolotarvika (east of Siversk).

The ISW has not yet confirmed the extent of the Russian forces' advance during this assault. The organization mentioned that additional video footage of the Russian attack is likely to emerge in the coming days.

"Ukrainian Luhansk Group of Forces Spokesperson Major Anastasiya Bobovnikova stated on December 14 that Russian forces fielded more than 100 pieces of equipment in a recent assault in the Siversk direction and noted that there were 55 combat engagements in this direction on December 13 - a significant increase in tempo in this area of the frontline," the report stated.

Effectiveness through personnel reshuffling

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also noted that the recent assault near Siversk was much larger and more coordinated than most previous attacks on the Siversk front.

Ukrainian military analyst Yuriy Butusov emphasized the careful preparation of the Russian forces for this attack. He pointed out that the Russian military intentionally coordinated the interaction between assault units, communication, electronic warfare (EW), and drone operations - all command and control elements that historically the Russian military has struggled to manage effectively.

The ISW does not rule out that the more coordinated Russian assault near Siversk could be the result of recent changes in command in this area. The Institute recalled that in early November 2024, Russian forces launched an unsuccessful mechanized attack to the northeast of Siversk, near Bilohorivka, despite exaggerated claims of success in the area. This led the Russian military command to remove and arrest several brigade commanders within the 3rd Combined Arms Army (CAA) (formerly 2nd Luhansk People's Republic Army Corps [LNR AC]).

"A Russian insider source who has previously correctly predicted Russian command changes claimed on December 13 that the Russian military command recently removed 3rd CAA Commander Major General Dmitry Ovcharov. A Russian milblogger rejected this claim on December 15, instead claiming that Major General Alexei Kolesnikov was the most recent commander of the 3rd CAA and that Kolesnikov recently took up a new, unspecified position," the ISW report stated.

Escalation on the frontlines

On December 14, Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled a massive Russian assault in the Siversk direction. The enemy launched eight assault attempts in the defensive sector of the Edelweiss Mountain Assault Brigade but suffered significant losses.

On December 14, a record number of attacks were recorded on the front lines - 292 combat engagements. The Russian army carried out numerous assaults in the Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Siversk, and Kursk directions.

Earlier, the ISW reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had recaptured lost positions near Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region.