Russia's summer offensive in Ukraine faces same problems as in 2022 - ISW
ISW explains why Russia's summer offensive may be doomed to fail (photo: Getty Images)
Russia is trying to encircle Lyman using the same approach it employed in 2022 — and is once again making little progress. This time, however, Russian forces are starting from a much weaker position, according to the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The approach is not new
Russia is trying to establish positions north, northeast, and east of Lyman. ISW analysts compare this to the summer 2022 campaign, when Russian forces sought to broadly encircle the city — from Lyman in the northeast to Izium in the northwest.
That attempt failed. In September and October 2022, Ukraine pushed Russian forces out of both Izium and Lyman within a matter of weeks.
Positions are worse than they were then
As of June 2026, the front line in this area is significantly less favorable for Russia than it was four years ago.
The attempt to encircle Lyman and advance toward Sloviansk is once again failing. ISW notes that the Russian command has not learned from its previous failures and continues to pursue unrealistic objectives despite the deterioration of the army's combat capabilities in 2026.
Prospects for the offensive
In the summer of 2026, Russia is unlikely to achieve even tactical successes in the Sloviansk direction, let alone operational gains, according to ISW analysts.
Russia's offensive in Donbas has slowed: advances toward Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka have stalled, while Russian monthly losses have reached 35,000 personnel.
In May, Russia set a record for the number of drones launched against Ukraine during the entire full-scale invasion — 8,150 UAVs, which is 24% more than in April.
