Russia's foreign trade continued to deteriorate in 2025, intelligence reports
Photo: Russia's foreign trade showed further degradation in 2025 (Getty Images)
At the end of 2025, Russia's foreign trade demonstrated further deterioration amid unfavorable price conditions and ongoing restrictions, according to the press service of Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service.
According to the intelligence service, the key factors were a decline in global energy prices and the impact of oil production quotas under OPEC+ agreements, which directly hit Russia's main source of foreign currency revenues.
The share of fuel and energy products in the export structure fell to 54.9% from 61.6% a year earlier, further underscoring the weakening of the energy sector.
An additional negative signal was a 10.3% drop in exports of food products and agricultural raw materials, indicating a loss of positions even in segments previously considered relatively resilient.
The reduction in imports was driven primarily by an 8.7% decrease in imports of investment goods, including machinery, equipment, and vehicles. This directly points to a contraction in investment activity and worsening prospects for industrial modernization. Against this backdrop, growth in imports of consumer goods, particularly food products (+14.2%) and chemical industry products (+2.6%), appears to be a forced compensation for internal imbalances rather than a sign of economic recovery.
China remains Russia's largest trading partner, accounting for about 27% of exports and 45% of imports, roughly in line with 2024 levels.
At the same time, bilateral trade with China recorded a 7.6% decline in oil exports and an 11% drop in coal exports, further weakening Moscow's position even in this key direction.
The Foreign Intelligence Service noted that overall, these indicators reflect a gradual and painful structural transformation of Russia’s economy under pressure from Western sanctions.
A significant reduction in oil and gas exports is shrinking foreign currency revenues and increasing the vulnerability of the federal budget to market fluctuations. Growth in exports of chemical products and metals is limited and restorative in nature and is unable to offset losses in the energy sector.
Meanwhile, the decline in imports of industrial equipment will restrain industrial renewal and prolong economic recovery. Growing dependence on Beijing only entrenches an asymmetric foreign trade model in which China increasingly acts not as a sales market but as Russia's main supplier of industrial products.
Economic collapse in Russia
As a reminder, Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service previously reported that clothing and footwear manufacturers in Russia are scaling back their businesses en masse due to rising taxes and fines. This trend primarily affects Russian producers, while foreign companies are performing very well amid these developments.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia's financial and institutional system is increasingly sinking into a regime of managed chaos. Banks are concealing ownership structures, civil servants are being exempted from asset declarations, and entrepreneurs are barely keeping their businesses afloat.
Russia's economy is also facing growing pressure from so-called "friendly" countries, which are quickly occupying niches left vacant due to the investment pause.
Additionally, Russia recently purchased critical turbine generators for nuclear power plants from China for the first time, highlighting the weakness of its domestic machine-building industry. This move signals Moscow’s deep technological dependence on Beijing.
Moreover, Russia's economy is suffering not only from sanctions and the war in Ukraine. Permafrost in regions critical to the Russian economy is beginning to thaw, posing a threat to key infrastructure.
