Russia may use energy truce to launch new strike on Ukraine, ISW warns
Photo: Vladimir Putin (Getty Images)
At the talks in Geneva, Russia may present its compliance with the moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure as a major concession by Moscow, while preparing for a new devastating strike against Ukraine in the near future, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Read also: Energy truce was tactical move: ISW explains Kremlin strategy
Analysts note that another short-term moratorium on energy strikes may be discussed during the current negotiations in Geneva.
At the same time, the ISW recalls that Vladimir Putin had already used similar tactics in March-April 2025 and January-February 2026.
At that time, Moscow claimed to be interested in peace, but at the same time stockpiled missiles and drones for further massive attacks after the restrictions ended.
"The Kremlin may seek to portray its compliance with another moratorium on energy strikes as a major Russian concession while preparing to launch another devastating strike against Ukraine in the near future," the report says.
Negotiations in Geneva
On February 17-18, the third round of trilateral negotiations between delegations from Ukraine, Russia, and the United States is taking place in Geneva, Switzerland.
Earlier, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Rustem Umerov said that during these negotiations, the Ukrainian side plans to raise the issue of an energy truce.
Meanwhile, on the eve of the meeting, on the night of February 17, Russia launched a combined missile and drone strike on Ukraine. The main targets were energy and civilian infrastructure facilities.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized that such an attack demonstrates Russia's disregard for peace efforts and diplomatic initiatives.
For more details on the new peace talks in Geneva, read the RBC-Ukraine's report.
Energy truce
At the end of January 2026, Russia allegedly promised US President Donald Trump not to attack Ukraine's energy sector.
The so-called energy truce began on January 30, but on the night of February 3, Russia launched massive strikes on energy facilities in many Ukrainian regions.
As a result of the large-scale Russian strikes, thousands of Ukrainians were left without heating during severe frosts.
After that, the Ukrainian embassy provided the US State Department with detailed information on all the strikes that had taken place since Russia's so-called agreement to the energy truce.
