Russia makes Kostiantynivka its top target in eastern Ukraine, ISW reports
Where is the enemy achieving tactical gains?
After failing to break through toward Sloviansk, Russian forces shifted their focus in the Donetsk region. Kostiantynivka has now become the main objective of Russia's spring-summer offensive campaign, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts note that the Russian army has concentrated significant forces on capturing Kostiantynivka, which has become the main objective of the aggressor's spring-summer offensive campaign in 2026.
In this direction, Russian forces have deployed elements of several armies and reinforced assault units.
According to Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets on June 10, the assault on Kostiantynivka is being carried out by two large enemy tactical groups — Bakhmut and Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk). Their forward units are currently located approximately two kilometers from each other.
The Bakhmut tactical group advanced from Stupochky (east of Kostyantynivka) through Novodmytrivka, capturing its southern part. Russian forces entered the northeastern part of Kostiantynivka and advanced along the T-0504 Pokrovsk-Bakhmut highway toward the railway station.
Advancing from Illinivka (south of Kostyantynivka), the Dzerzhinsk tactical group expanded its operations across areas stretching from the northwest to the southwest of the city. According to observers, this group managed to achieve a tactical breakthrough in the western part of Kostiantynivka.
Russian troops failed to capture the Kostiantynivka railway station itself. In addition, Ukrainian forces successfully cleared Dovha Balka (southwest of Kostyantynivka) of Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups.
Map of the frontline in the Kostiantynivka area (photo: ISW)
ISW analysts emphasize that Russian forces will most likely continue pushing deeper into Kostiantynivka and may establish positions in certain parts of the city during the summer of 2026.
However, this advance will come at a huge cost in losses for Russian forces, while operational success across the entire Fortress Belt remains unlikely.
Russian forces will likely continue to penetrate Kostiantynivka and strengthen their positions in certain parts of the city, but will most likely suffer heavy losses in the process.
Ukrainian Armed Forces' successes on the frontline
According to Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi, in May the Defense Forces liberated 100 square kilometers more territory than they lost.
Since the beginning of the year, the overall balance of liberated territory has exceeded 600 square kilometers.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that June and July could determine a great deal in the war. According to him, decisions made at the EU, G7, and NATO summits could influence the diplomatic track and the conditions of a possible ceasefire.
