Russia increases drone production, but electronic warfare reduces threat - ISW
Photo: Ukraine has learned how to effectively counter the Shahed kamikaze drones (RBC-Ukraine collage)
Russia has increased its use of Shahed kamikaze drones in attacks on Ukraine. However, advancements in electronic warfare allow Ukraine’s Armed Forces to respond more effectively to these strikes, reports the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The ISW references an interview with Ukrainian military expert Petro Chernyk, published by ArmyInform, in which he stated that Russia had ramped up production of Shahed drone gliders by using Iranian or Chinese-imported components. The ISW report notes that Chernyk’s statements align with the institute’s assessment from October 2024. According to the ISW, Russia is relying on domestic production of Shaheds to increase the frequency of drone attacks on Ukraine.
This trend is reflected in the composition of strike packages that targeted Ukraine in October and November 2024. It has become more common for Russian forces to launch 80 to 100, or even more, Shahed drones, along with so-called decoy drones, in large attack packages.
On the night of December 1-2, Russian forces launched 110 Shahed drones and other unidentified drones, likely decoys, at Ukraine.
"Russian forces most likely use large numbers of Shahed-type drones and decoy drones to detect and overwhelm Ukrainian air defense and mobile fire groups; Russian forces most frequently launch Shaheds alongside more limited numbers of cruise and ballistic missiles," the ISW stated.
The role of electronic warfare
The ISW notes that Ukraine’s Air Force has been effectively countering these mass drone attacks. The report highlights that in October and November 2024, a significant number of Shahed and decoy drones were “lost” (failed to reach their targets) due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) systems.
For example, on October 2, Russia launched 105 Shahed drones at Ukraine. Of those, 78 were shot down by air defense, while 23 were lost due to EW interference (22%).
On the night of December 1-2, Russian forces launched 110 Shaheds and decoys over Ukraine. Of these, 52 were downed, and 50 were lost due to EW interference (45%).
"Chernyk noted the high Ukrainian shoot-down rate and also emphasized that Ukraine has improved its EW capabilities to the extent where Ukrainian forces can either 'ground' the Shaheds, cause them to get 'lost,' or cause them to deviate their paths and fly into Russian or Belarusian airspace," the ISW said.
The ISW adds that Ukraine’s EW efforts are significantly undermining the effectiveness of Russian drone strike packages and putting additional strain on the joint Russian-Belarusian air defense system.
The independent Belarusian monitoring group Hajun Project reported that on November 24 and 25, 38 Russian Shahed drones entered Belarusian airspace.
"Belarus scrambled jets to respond to the airspace violation — suggesting that Belarus was unprepared to receive errant Russian drones and that Russia had not anticipated the impacts of Ukrainian interference or communicated them to Belarus in advance," the ISW added.
Russian drone attacks
Over the past two months, Russian forces have significantly increased the frequency and scale of drone attacks on Ukraine. Russia now launches Shaheds nearly every night, with some daytime launches also reported.
Only over the day of December 2, Russian troops launched 717 kamikaze drones in the direction of Ukraine.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has imposed sanctions on individuals and entities assisting Russia in producing strike drones.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian developers have designed and manufactured their own version of the Iranian Shahed drone, unveiling its features.
