Russia has several options for advancing on Pokrovsk - ISW reveals details
Russian forces will carry out several operations to capture Pokrovsk (photo: Getty Images)
As part of their offensive to capture the city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, Russian forces are conducting two key tactical operations, according to a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The first operation is being carried out along the line of Novohrodivka to Hrodivka, east of Pokrovsk, with the aim of capturing Myrnohrad and advancing towards the outskirts of the city.
The second tactical operation is conducted along the line of Selydove-Ukriansk-Hirnyk, southeast of Pokrovsk, and focuses on expanding the Russian grouping in the Pokrovsk direction and eliminating vulnerabilities for counterattacks by Ukrainian forces.
The ISW believes that the Russian military command likely views both of these tactical operations as necessary prerequisites for initiating an intensive offensive to capture Pokrovsk.
Successes in the Pokrovsk direction
The report referenced a statement by the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, who on August 29 noted that the most intense fighting in the Pokrovsk direction is taking place on the eastern outskirts of Hrodivka (east of Pokrovsk), southwest of the city near Krasnyi Yar, within Novohrodivka (southeast of Pokrovsk), and directly east of Selydove near Mykhailivka (southeast of Pokrovsk).
"ISW has observed Russian gains in these areas in recent days, but Russian milbloggers have claimed that Russian forces have made more significant tactical gains in the Pokrovsk direction than what observed visually confirmed evidence currently supports," the report states.
According to Russian bloggers, Russian forces have advanced to the southeast outskirts of Myrnohrad (directly east of Pokrovsk) and have engaged in small-arms combat with Ukrainian troops in the city. Meanwhile, a Ukrainian military observer described the Russian forces operating in the city as reconnaissance and sabotage groups.
The bloggers also claimed that Russian forces have made progress in most of the eastern areas of Selydove and reached the city center. Additionally, they alleged that Russian troops have fought on the northeastern outskirts of Ukrainsk (southeast of Pokrovsk), captured Memryk (directly northeast of Ukrainsk), and entered Halitsynivka (directly east of Ukrainsk).
Attempt to bypass the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense
The ISW report also notes that Russian forces are trying to maintain momentum along the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka line to capture Myrnohrad swiftly and advance to the outskirts of Pokrovsk.
The advance from Novohrodivka to the outskirts of Myrnohrad is likely aimed at flanking what Russian sources describe as the main Ukrainian defensive positions to the northwest and west of Hrodivka.
It is mentioned that Russian troops have recently encircled Ukrainian positions southeast of Pokrovsk along the Karlivske Reservoir, prompting Ukrainian forces to withdraw from constrained positions in that area.
"Russian forces likely hope to achieve a similar effect by trying to envelop Ukrainian positions between Myrnohrad and Hrodivka, although it remains unclear if Russian forces can maintain their relatively rapid rate of advance through the comparatively larger town of Myrnohrad and its surroundings," the report states.
The Institute for the Study of War analysts speculate that Russian forces might attempt to directly assault Ukrainian defensive positions along the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka line, despite higher costs, to maintain their advance speed and attempt to capture Myrnohrad more quickly.
"Russian efforts to seize Myrnohrad do not preclude Russian forces from advancing up to the eastern outskirts of Pokrovsk, and the Russian military will likely pursue these tactical goals in tandem," the ISW report concludes.
Expansion of the southern flank and risk of encirclement
According to ISW analysts, the Russian advance towards the city of Selydove, as well as in the direction of Ukrainsk and Hirkivka, aims to neutralize the relatively large Ukrainian salient at the southern edge of the broader Russian salient towards Pokrovsk. This Ukrainian position could threaten the Russian offensive efforts in the region.
Ukrainian positions to the east of the Selydove-Ukrainsk-Hirkivka line provide Ukrainian forces with the capability to threaten the Russian rear towards Pokrovsk. The Russian military command is likely concerned that Ukrainian counterattacks and shelling might disrupt the advance, as Russian forces are deploying logistics, artillery elements, and concentrating forces to the west, at the forefront of the salient, to support intensified efforts at Pokrovsk itself.
"The Russian military command also likely aims to expand and stabilize the southern flank of the Russian salient in the area in order to prevent Ukrainian forces from threatening the gains Russia has made in its 2024 offensive effort once Russian offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction culminate," the ISW report states.
The Institute also notes that the Russian salient is approximately 21 kilometers wide from the Ukrainian salient to the east of the Selydove-Ukrainsk-Hirkivka line to Ukrainian positions north of Avdiivka along the N-20 highway (Avdiivka-Kostyantynivka). Russian positions along the E-50 route (Donetsk-Pokrovsk) southwest of Avdiivka are located about 13 kilometers from the city, while the current line of Russian advance along the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka line is approximately 30 kilometers from Avdiivka.
"Significant Ukrainian counterattacks from the base of the salient towards Avdiivka could threaten to encircle the Russian force grouping deployed forward in the salient, and the Russian military command likely aims to preempt this possibility by eliminating the Ukrainian salient on the southern flank of the Pokrovsk direction," the ISW report concludes.
Advance from two sides
Russian forces are likely hoping that their advance towards Ukrainsk and Hirnyk will mutually support offensive operations west of Donetsk. They anticipate that the combined pressure from both directions will either overwhelm Ukrainian forces or force the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) to retreat from their limited positions in the rural areas east of Ukraine and Hirkivka.
The territory north of Krasnohorivka (west of Donetsk) is predominantly open fields with limited cover or protection from relatively few windbreaks. Advancing through this terrain will likely require substantial mechanized attacks, which Russian forces typically find challenging to execute successfully.
"Russian forces have proven more adept at advancing from settlement to settlement with small infantry groups in the Pokrovsk direction, although it remains to be seen if Russian infantry groups can maintain their rate of advance as they approach Ukrainsk and Hirnyk," ISW analysts note.
Source: Deep State War Map (deepstatemap.live)
Situation in the Pokrovsk direction
General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, has noted that the fiercest battles are occurring in the Pokrovsk direction. There, unconventional measures are being employed to strengthen and hold the defense.
In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces are actively leveraging their advantage in manpower and equipment. There are over 50 combat engagements daily, with Russian losses reaching up to 300 soldiers.
Military expert Oleksii Hetman believes that the terrain in the Pokrovsk direction is aiding the Russian advance.
