Russia edges closer to Sumy, but city remains out of reach, ISW says

It is noted that Russian forces are intensifying attempts to expand the frontline in the north of the Sumy region on three axes of advance toward the north and northeast of the city of Sumy.

Geolocated video materials released on June 2 indicate that the Russians recently advanced north of the village of Andriivka (north of Sumy) and northeast of the village of Yablunivka (northeast of Sumy).

According to Russian military bloggers, the Russian army recently captured Oleksiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Kindrativka - all located north of Sumy - and also advanced to the northern part of Andriivka as well as west of Yablunivka and c.

Analysts from the Institute noted that Russian forces have recently intensified ground assaults north of Sumy toward Andriivka, as well as northeast of the city in the direction of Yunakivka and Myropillya.

Which units are pushing into the Sumy region

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), citing Ukrainian military analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets on June 2nd, elements of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division (11th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) and the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment (Caspian Flotilla) are engaged in fighting along the line from Kostyantynivka to Kindrativka, and from Volodymyrivka to Oleksiivka — all located north of Sumy.

Mashovets also noted that units from the 104th, 234th, and 237th Airborne Regiments (all of the Russian 76th VDV Division) are operating along the Loknya-Yunakivka line and to the west of Loknya, all northeast of Sumy.

Earlier, Mashovets reported that Russian forces recently redeployed units from the 752nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (3rd Motorized Rifle Division, 20th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) and 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th AC, LMD) from the Chasiv Yar direction. The move aims to reinforce the Russian troop grouping in the northern Sumy region.

Risk of city capture

The ISW reminded that Russian officials have long been pushing for the creation of a buffer zone in the northern Sumy region and have recently stepped up efforts to shape the narrative justifying renewed offensive operations toward the city of Sumy.

According to analysts, Russian forces are trying to advance to the line of Khotin–Khrapivshchyna (south to southeast of Andriivka and Yunakivka) — roughly 12 to 15 kilometers from Sumy. Securing this position would allow the Russian army to bring their tube artillery within range to strike the city.

“Russian forces likely intend to leverage intensified drone and artillery strikes against the city to support further advances toward Sumy city and likely aspire to conduct an offensive operation to seize the city in the future,” the report states.

At the same time, the Institute for the Study of War is confident that Russian forces won’t be able to take Sumy in the short to medium term, noting that since July 2022, they haven’t captured any Ukrainian cities with a pre-war population over 100,000.

Russian offensive in the Sumy region

Last week, Russian forces stepped up their offensive operation along the border of the Sumy region. According to the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, the enemy is trying to expand the zone where infantry groups enter Ukrainian territory. Notably, there has been no use of armored vehicles reported.

Military expert Oleksii Hetman pointed out that Russia is redeploying units to the border areas of Sumy and Kharkiv regions, but these are units that were already stationed there.

For a deeper look into Russia’s summer offensive and why there’s no need to panic, read the article by RBC-Ukraine.