Russia's summer offensive. What's next on battlefield and how Ukraine aims to fight back

Russia has announced yet another offensive campaign in Ukraine - this one is set to unfold this summer. The Kremlin's ultimate dream plan is to seize full control of the four Ukrainian regions it has already "added" to the Russian constitution.

But in recent weeks, more and more reports suggest that these four regions are not the enemy's only objective. Despite efforts to break through key fronts in the Donetsk region, Russian forces are also amassing near the Sumy and Kharkiv regions.

On all fronts

In 2022, the Kremlin was confident its army would easily conquer Ukraine. Soldiers in the first waves of the invasion even carried dress uniforms with them. Russian propaganda mocked Ukraine's military capabilities and boasted it would "take Kyiv in three days." Over three years into a grueling war of attrition, Russian forces have failed to achieve even a fraction of their large-scale plan.

Nonetheless, the Russian army currently holds parts of four Ukrainian regions, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, as well as a few small settlements in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions.

Most likely, Russia still dreams of taking full control over Ukraine. But the immediate goal is obvious: to reach the full administrative borders of at least some of the four regions it claims as its own. And it appears that the Russian military command is pursuing precisely this during the summer offensive.

Defense Forces sources told RBC-Ukraine that during the summer-autumn campaign, the enemy's frontline priorities will look like this: First, advancing in the Donetsk region, with major battles expected around Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Kostiantynivka. Second, pushing forward in the border areas of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions.

Officially, no one in Russia is talking about a summer campaign. Except for Vladimir Putin, who in May again mentioned creating a "buffer zone" between Ukraine and Russia to "ensure security for Russian citizens." But both Western media and Ukraine's military leadership consistently report Russian troop buildups on the Ukrainian border, suggesting preparations for a new attempt to break through Ukrainian defenses.

Russian soldier (photo: Getty Images)

On May 28, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia had concentrated about 50,000 troops along the Sumy region border. Currently, four settlements in this region are under Russian control, and the status of several more remains unclear. A similar growth in activity is noted in the Kharkiv region, where the enemy is trying to push forward near Vovchansk.

The Russians had planned an offensive or at least a breakthrough attempt last year as well when they also massed troops near these two regions. Later, the Kursk operation unfolded, forcing them to push Ukrainian forces off their own territory. Now, Moscow is bringing some of those troops back. This is what we now see on the maps and call a buildup.

"That 90,000-strong force is no longer needed in the Kursk region. Accordingly, the troops previously withdrawn from the Sumy and Kharkiv have now been returned there. That's the point. The troop numbers in those directions haven't increased. And when they write about 50,000 being deployed, they somehow forget to mention that 50,000 were pulled out before," said Ukrainian military expert Oleksii Hetman in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

In the Kharkiv direction, the Russian command has concentrated forces from the 18th Guards Motor Rifle Division. Their likely task is to break through a 40 km front line, find a weak point, and advance 15–20 km deep. But that's hardly what you'd call a "major offensive."

According to DeepState maps and regular General Staff updates Russia's main efforts are still focused on the Donetsk region. Military analysts point out that Pokrovsk has been Russia's key operational target since February 2024. "But if Russia really intended to prioritize this direction in 2025, it would have deployed units from the 8th Guard Combined Arms Army to support its exhausted troops near Pokrovsk," notes the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Still, the Russians, ever opportunistic, may change their objectives depending on what opportunities arise. During the summer campaign, they could shift focus to Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, or Kostiantynivka. The enemy moves troops quickly via rail. But in any case, the Donetsk region remains the central focus. The Russians believe the full occupation of Donetsk is the key to further offensives.

"This is what they prepared for, based on the real situation. The military promised the Kremlin that Donbas would be taken no matter what, the Ukrainian army would collapse, and further operations could be carried out elsewhere, including the creation of so-called buffer zones in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions," said Ukrainian military expert Mykhailo Samus in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

The troop concentrations and minor advances in other regions may be aimed at stretching the front. The Russians want to force Ukraine's Armed Forces to spread along the contact line, weakening their defenses. That would make it easier to find a breach, push inward, and dig in.

Military sources told RBC-Ukraine that if Russian troops succeed on their priority axes, they may expand their offensives into the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions as well. But for now, they lack the strength to attack everywhere at once. So, one way or another, Russia will have to choose where to strike hardest.

Last chance

Manpower isn't the Kremlin's only challenge in continuing the war. Talk of Russia's economy collapsing under sanctions and war expenses has persisted since 2022. By 2025, Moscow is still capable of advancing, has restored production of missiles and drones, and is trying to keep recruitment flowing. After three years of war, the Ukrainian public has become more skeptical of dramatic predictions about Russia's economic collapse.

Today, Russia is reportedly already facing a shortage of armored vehicles. However, it has found ways around this too. Instead of infantry fighting vehicles and tanks, it increasingly uses motorcycles, quadrocycles, and other light motorized transport in assaults. These are harder to target with FPV drones and almost impossible to hit with artillery. The best defense against such raids remains engineering barriers and landmines.

At the end of May, President Zelenskyy said during a press conference that Russia might not be able to endure the war's pressure much longer. While much of Moscow's trade has gone into the shadows, the impact of sanctions is visible. This, he said, gives hope that the war might end within a year.

Russian troops in Donbas (photo: Getty Images)

"Of course, we've seen the analysis from many intelligence services and analysts. June 2026 - we all hope there will be no more war by then. Very much. At the same time, we understand that the economic impact of sanctions will hit Russians. Even just from the sanctions already in place. And we believe that starting from summer 2026, their economy will feel it severely," the President of Ukraine said.

Already today, Russia is manually supporting the ruble against the dollar. The current exchange rate is 76 rubles per dollar, although not long ago, the rate had surged past 100. Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council explained this manipulation by saying the Kremlin is laundering the currency through Kazakhstan - opening accounts there, converting rubles into tenge, and then using those to buy dollars.

A similar situation is unfolding with oil. Russia is trying to keep prices below $60 per barrel. The drop has allowed Greek shipowners to resume deliveries, helping Russia preserve some export revenues. But low oil prices are not in Moscow's favor.

Few dare to make bold predictions anymore, but many experts suggest that by September-October, Russia may have to scale back its offensive, adjust to winter conditions, and potentially abandon its broader assault plans. The summer campaign may be the Kremlin's last shot at a major breakthrough. After that - only positional and tactical warfare.

"They’re (Russians - ed.) in a very difficult, even bizarre, situation. The dollar is under 80 rubles, oil is at $50. Multiply those numbers, and you get a deficit - some strange imbalance. I get the impression that their old-guard officials are just converting everything into foreign currency. They're artificially deflating the dollar rate, which kills exports, but they’re moving forward with military projects, converting everything into foreign currency, and waiting for the collapse to come in the fall. Then, Russia will be ready for a ceasefire and lifting of sanctions. Until then, they'll just be stalling for time over the summer," Samus added.

Ukraine's response

For obvious reasons, there is little public discussion in Ukraine about how the country's military command plans to respond to Russian actions. A year ago, Russia was also preparing for a major summer offensive - Ukraine responded with defensive operations and efforts to exhaust the enemy, as Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said at the time.

Today, as Russian forces attempt another offensive, the most likely tactic for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is entrenched defense and enemy attrition. This approach includes strengthening defensive lines and deploying large numbers of drones - UAVs allow Ukraine to wage war from a distance and prevent the enemy from approaching defense lines. In addition, Ukrainian troops may carry out tactical-level counterattacks to slow down the enemy’s advance.

To this end, Ukrainian troops are reinforcing defensive positions along the entire front line, particularly in the areas of the Donetsk region where fighting is most intense - in the Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka directions. At the same time, the Ukrainian military is preparing for potential attacks in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions to prevent Russian forces from stretching the frontline further. Sources from RBC-Ukraine also express concern that Russian plans to create a so-called "sanitary" or "buffer" zone could extend to another region, Chernihiv. That is why Ukrainian forces are also closely monitoring this section of the front.

Ukrainian soldier (photo: Getty Images)

Officials in the United States, cited by media outlets, say that Ukraine's defensive capabilities have improved. Thanks to the $61 billion aid package approved by Congress, Ukrainian forces have managed to slow down Russian advances in the Donetsk region and push them back in the Kharkiv region.

Ukraine's defensive line will stretch about 350 kilometers - from Kharkiv all the way to Vilne Pole in Zaporizhzhia region, according to analysts from the military research project PlayFra. To build these fortifications, Ukrainian engineering troops are using anti-tank ditches, dragon's teeth (wedge-shaped concrete antitank barriers laid in multiple rows - ed.), and barbed wire.

These lines are being constructed in topographically narrow locations - on hills and behind rivers. With extensive fortifications and trench systems along and several kilometers behind the front line, Ukrainian forces hope to slow down and eventually exhaust Russians.

Moreover, Ukraine's military leadership is also working on changing the structure of its Armed Forces by forming corps-level units. "This is a shift to a new level of force generation - permanent ecosystems responsible for both generating and deploying forces. We haven't had anything like that. The brigade was our largest operational unit, which is clearly not enough. When Russia fights with divisions and Ukraine with brigades, speaking of standing structures, the situation is clearly uneven. Now things are starting to change," says Samus.

It is unlikely that Ukrainian forces will be able to seize the initiative this summer. The goal is to prevent Russia from capturing and holding new territory. Still, targeted counterattacks are not off the table.

"There's no need to panic or to start doom-saying. When Russia announced its 2024 offensive, they claimed they would advance nearly to the Left Bank. What did they actually achieve? 'A powerful offensive operation,'" Hetman adds.

Sources in Ukraine's Defense Forces are also skeptical that Russia will be able to reach even the administrative borders of the Donetsk region by the end of summer. Even more, they doubt Russia can fully occupy the region by the end of the year. However, they acknowledge that Ukraine's army is facing serious internal challenges and is itself being worn down under constant enemy pressure.

Terror against civilians

Russia continues to carry out massive attacks on Ukrainian cities - and likely won't stop during the summer campaign. Moscow has enough resources to sustain regular strikes, especially since drones are being used most frequently.

According to various estimates, Russia's defense industry is currently capable of producing over 100 long-range drones per day and is seeking to raise that number to 500. Meanwhile, Ukrainian air defense forces continue to shoot down about 80% of the drones that attack daily.

People assist rescuers after a school in Kyiv was shelled (photo: Getty Images)

As for missiles, Russia is producing between 120 and 300 of various types each month. Sanctions have made their production more difficult, but Moscow has learned how to acquire the needed microelectronics from Europe and the US. Using these missiles, Russian command aims to inflict serious damage on Ukraine's defense industry - but how effective they've been is unclear.

There is, however, clear information on Ukraine's mirror strikes. Thanks to scaled-up drone production, Ukrainian forces can reach critical Russian military targets, for example, Yelabuga, where drones are produced. The Shahed drone factory in Russia has already been attacked more than once, and it's unlikely these strikes will stop. The same goes for refineries, ammunition depots, and other high-value military sites.

Ukraine also continues to receive vital resources to sustain its defense. Despite Donald Trump's unclear stance, the US is not backing out of its commitments and continues to send ammunition. Europe, too, is helping Kyiv hold the line and possibly even strike deep into Russian territory. During his recent visit to Berlin, President Zelenskyy said that Germany and Ukraine will jointly produce long-range weapons. It remains unclear, however, whether Berlin will supply Taurus missiles - the debate is still ongoing.

Despite some media panic following Russia's three-day combined attack, experts say Ukraine still has the capacity to repel strikes. Just as Russia has the capacity to keep launching them.

***

Today, Moscow pretends to be ready for negotiations. While Kremlin officials without any real authority sit in Istanbul repeating the same things they said back in 2022, the Russian army continues trying to seize more territory. Even Donald Trump seems not to believe Putin's claims that he never wanted war, seeks peace, and is ready for "compromise." But no one seems willing to stop Putin with tough sanctions, let alone direct intervention.

It all comes down to whether Russia will exhaust its offensive potential. Or perhaps this summer offensive is just another pressure tactic - Moscow's way of forcing Ukraine to concede by showing it can keep advancing and bombing civilian cities. If Ukraine can hold the line this summer and prevent a breakthrough, there's a real chance that by the end of the year, Russia's tone at the negotiation table may shift. Otherwise, both sides could be locked in a positional war for an indefinite period.