Russia could threaten NATO sooner than expected — Institute for the Study of War
Russia could threaten NATO much earlier than experts predicted (photo: Getty Images)
Russia is likely using covert attacks on German infrastructure to prepare for a potential war with NATO. Moscow could become a significant threat to the Alliance sooner than expected, especially if a ceasefire in Ukraine is reached, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Phase Zero
ISW analysts, citing German intelligence data, note that Russia is already conducting hybrid operations against NATO countries: covert attacks on German infrastructure have been recorded, which the Kremlin considers a key logistical hub of the Alliance. These actions aim to destabilize European countries through cyberattacks and sabotage.
Timeline for preparation for an attack
Current assessments indicate that Russia could reach the necessary levels of armaments and troop strength for a confrontation with NATO within the next three years, through 2029.
Experts emphasize that this forecast remains valid even if the war in Ukraine continues, but any ceasefire would significantly accelerate the recovery of Russian forces.
Risks of a ceasefire
ISW stresses that freezing the war in Ukraine would allow Moscow to free up combat units, rearm, and recover. This would create conditions under which Russia could threaten the Alliance's security much earlier than Western policymakers had predicted.
Germany has recorded a rise in Russian sabotage and cyberattacks. According to the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Russia has moved to active destabilization of the country.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has called on Alliance member states to increase defense spending to 5%. According to him, such an increase is necessary to prevent a situation in which Russia suddenly proves more potent than the military-political bloc.
