Peace summit in Saudi Arabia on Ukraine: Peace Formula discussion

Date, location, and participants

The summit in Saudi Arabia was first reported by the American newspaper, The Wall Street Journal. According to their information, the meeting will take place on August 5th and 6th in Jeddah - the second-largest city and economic capital of Saudi Arabia.

As expected, representatives from 30 countries will participate in the peace negotiations regarding Ukraine.

"This comes amid growing competition between the Kremlin and Western allies of Ukraine for support from major developing countries, many of which have taken a neutral position on the war in Ukraine," WSJ writes.

The publication, citing sources, indicates that representatives from leading European Union countries, the United States, as well as India, Brazil, Turkey, and South Africa will attend the summit. The Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that the meeting will take place in Jeddah, and Prague is currently assessing its level of representation. Meanwhile, Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed support for Saudi Arabia's peace initiatives.

As stated by the Head of the Ukrainian President's Office, Andrii Yermak, the summit is planned to be held at the level of advisors to the participating countries' leaders.

Topics to be discussed in Jeddah

According to Yermak, the summit participants will discuss the implementation of the Ukrainian peace formula.

"We plan to discuss ten key points of the peace formula, the realization of which will not only ensure peace for Ukraine but also create mechanisms to counter future conflicts in the world," emphasized the Head of the President's Office.

(Photo: Andriy Yermak states that the Ukrainian peace formula will be discussed at the Jeddah summit. Source: Vitalii Nosach/RBC-Ukraine)

He also stressed that each point of this formula is being discussed with representatives from over 50 countries in various formats. The Ukrainian side insists that its plan be used as the basis but is prepared to consider any ideas that do not contradict the key principles of international law and the provisions of the UN Charter during consultations.

Yermak highlights that the implementation of the peace formula involves a three-phase structure:

1. First phase - Ambassadors' meetings dedicated to a detailed examination of each point of the peace formula.
2. Second phase - Ukraine initiates meetings between security advisors to search for optimal formulations and mechanisms for implementing the peace plan.
3. The third phase will be the founding Global Summit at the level of state leaders, which could take place by the end of the year.

Key points of the Peace Formula

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented the ten-step peace formula in November 2022. The plan includes the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and compensation for the damages incurred.

The ten points of the peace formula are as follows:

1. Radiation and Nuclear Safety (immediate return of the Zaporizhzhia NPP under Ukraine's control)
2. Food Security (uninterrupted operation of the grain agreement, expanding to all Black Sea ports)
3. Energy Security (limiting prices for Russian energy resources and protecting Ukrainian facilities with Air Defense/Anti-Missile Defense)
4. Release of all prisoners of war and deported individuals
5. Adherence to the UN Charter and restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity
6. Withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities
7. Restoring justice (establishment of a Special Tribunal for Russian crimes and compensation for damages)
8. Countering ecocide
9. Prevention of escalation (providing Ukraine with security guarantees)
10. Formalizing the end of the war (signing a multilateral peace agreement)

The Ukrainian peace formula has garnered support from partners and allies, including the European Union with members such as Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Finland, and Baltic countries, as well as the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Japan, and several other nations.

A resolution supporting the peace formula was put to a vote at the UN General Assembly in February 2023. At that time, 141 countries supported it, while 32 countries, including Armenia, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, and others, abstained.

The expected opponents of Zelenskyy's formula were the Russian Federation and its satellites - Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, Syria, Nicaragua, and Mali.

Not a new format

As stated by Andrii Yermak, the summit in Jeddah is not a new format, as the first meeting at the level of national security advisors took place in Copenhagen on June 25th.

Back then, it was reported that political advisors from more than 10 countries were involved in the negotiations. Besides Ukraine, representatives from Brazil, the United Kingdom, Denmark, the EU, Italy, India, Canada, Germany, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Turkey, France, and Japan were present.

The following day, Western media reported that it was not merely a meeting but a peace conference. The participation of India, Brazil, and South Africa indicated the main objective of studying the support from Global South countries, which remain neutral or cautious regarding Russia's war against Ukraine.

Photo: The first meeting in this format took place in Copenhagen on June 25th. Source: t.me/ermaka2022

At that time, the German television channel ARD mentioned that official negotiations could take place in July. However, considering the upcoming August summit in Jeddah, it will now be the official part of the process.

As WSJ writes, during the meeting in Copenhagen, there was a significant divergence in views on the peace plan between Ukraine and the majority of developing countries. Kyiv's representatives pushed them to support Zelenskyy's formula, but this group indicated that they were open to discussing general principles but not ready to endorse the peace formula.

"Russia will not attend the summit, as it avoids serious talks about peace and sticks to maximalist demands for any settlement. This happens as the war seems to have hit a dead-end," the publication states.

In the meantime, the press secretary of the Russian President, Dmitry Peskov, indicated that the Kremlin will closely monitor the meeting, although they currently do not understand "what goals are set and what will be discussed." He also emphasized that there are no preconditions for negotiations with Ukraine at the moment.

However, as WSJ asserts, the summit in Jeddah is capable of further consolidating international support for Ukraine, as many participants still maintain a neutral stance.

At the same time, Ukrainian and Western officials hope that all of this will eventually lead to a Global Summit at the end of the year, which will be the culmination of peace efforts. During this summit, world leaders will sign general principles regarding the cessation of the Russian-Ukrainian war. It is expected that these principles will form the basis for future negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.

Why Saudi Arabia?

WSJ, citing Western diplomats, writes that Saudi Arabia was chosen as the summit venue to involve representatives from China. Despite the existence of an alternative "peace plan," Beijing was not represented at the meeting in Copenhagen. The participation of a Chinese delegation in the Jeddah summit is not expected, but it is not ruled out either.

The Associated Press points out that Saudi Arabia, which has noticeably strengthened its ties with Russia in recent years, traditionally pursues a cautious foreign policy.

In May 2023, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended the League of Arab States summit in Jeddah, where he called for support for the peace formula. Following the visit, the Saudi Foreign Minister emphasized that his country had chosen an active neutral stance.

The authorities stressed that this neutral position had already facilitated the exchange of prisoners between Ukraine and Russia. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman also declared support for international peace efforts and readiness to act as a mediator.

Based on this, it is evident that the upcoming summit will help boost the international authority of bin Salman, who seeks de-escalation in relations with Iran and peace in the long-standing Yemeni war.

Photo: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman seeks to raise Saudi Arabia's international authority through the summit. Source: president.gov.ua

Moreover, it has recently become known that Saudi Arabia and Turkey are secretly cooperating on the issue of returning Ukrainian children abducted by Russia. According to the Financial Times, corresponding lists are being compiled in Ukraine and Russia.

"These extremely sensitive negotiations, which have been ongoing for several months, suggest that third parties are still looking for ways to achieve compromises between Ukraine and Russia, hoping that they could become channels for potential peace talks aimed at ending the war," FT wrote.

Saudi Arabia also raised this issue during a meeting with representatives of G20 countries. According to a source cited by the newspaper, since the matter is highly sensitive and "no one trusts anyone," an independent mediator is needed, and Riyadh could potentially fulfill that role.

Summit amidst negotiations for security assurances to Ukraine

This week will also mark the beginning of negotiations regarding security assurances for Ukraine, primarily with the United States.

"Ukraine will start negotiations with the US on a bilateral agreement for providing security assurances. These assurances will remain in effect until Ukraine becomes a member of NATO, which is the most reliable security guarantee," said Andrii Yermak, the Head of the President's Office, recently.

This is a continuation of the declaration by the G7 countries, agreed upon during the NATO summit in Vilnius in mid-July. According to Yermak, more than 10 other participants have joined the document. Currently, the Ukrainian side is working on bilateral agreements with each partner.

The security assurances will involve specific and long-term commitments from allies. They will enable Ukraine to secure victory immediately and also deter Russian aggression in the future. This includes commitments for military and financial support, as well as sanctions and penalties against the Russian Federation for its aggressive war.

As of now, there is no information on where and how the negotiations will start. However, it is evident that the Saudi Arabian platform could be a convenient venue to initiate discussions on security assurances with both the US and other partners.