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Not all is lost: Expert explains Estonian intel about Russia taking initiative on Ukraine front

Not all is lost: Expert explains Estonian intel about Russia taking initiative on Ukraine front Expert explains Estonian intel about Russia taking initiative on Ukraine front (Getty Images)

Russia seizing the initiative on the eastern front, as claimed by Estonian intelligence, does not imply a catastrophe, as it has not achieved any significant results, as the Head of the Сenter of Military Law Researches, Oleksandr Musiienko, says in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

"I don't see an extraordinary scenario today where Russia, seizing the initiative, has achieved something. We can talk about taking the initiative as much as we want, but if one looks at the facts and the map, there are no significant gains. Not all is lost. There is no catastrophe," the expert said.

Musiienko explained that active combat operations are ongoing on the front today. Russian forces are attempting to advance and have minor tactical successes, while Ukrainian forces confidently holing their defense.

"As of today, we can talk about facts, and the fact is that Russian forces have not been able to make significant progress, and Ukrainian forces hold the main positions starting the Kupiansk direction onwards to Lyman and Bakhmut, holding Maryinka and Avdiivka," he noted.

Besides, the expert says that Russian forces are somewhat weakening on the eastern front. According to him, it is proved by the fact that some new Russian units arriving in Avdiivka are 100% manned, but they are equipped with artillery and armored vehicles not exceeding 50%.

"This means that Ukrainian forces are destroying a large amount of armored vehicles, so the enemy relies on live forces and aviation. And partially on artillery," the expert explained.

Musiienko also adds that the situation around Avdiivka plays a significant role for Ukraine. Since Ukrainian forces are stationed there, it allows the Defense Forces to take action on the left bank of the Kherson region.

Estonian intelligence statement

Today, Estonian ERR posted a report from Estonian intelligence stating that Russia took the initiative in the Donbas, continuing to attack with increased intensity.

"The Russian Federation has seized the initiative in both Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, which in turn suggests Russia's goals in Ukraine have not changed," the statement reads.

Estonian intelligence also predicted that worsening weather and the onset of the off-road season would affect the course of events on the front. Estonia indicates that Ukrainian and Russian forces will try to strengthen their positions before winter.

Losses for Russia near Avdiivka

Today, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, recalls there has been a month of Russian assaults on the city of Avdiivka in Donbas. According to him, Russian forces lost 10,000 soldiers and a lot of equipment.

The Russian army also lost over 100 tanks and 7 aircraft.

The total number of losses for the Russian army since the beginning of the invasion is 309,520 military personnel.