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Next year could be more favorable for Russia: Czech President unveils under what condition

Next year could be more favorable for Russia: Czech President unveils under what condition President of Czechia, Petr Pavel (Photo: Getty Images)
Author: Daria Shekina

If the West misses the opportunity to maintain support for Ukraine, next year could prove even more favorable for Russia, states Czech President Petr Pavel.

Russia's victory in Ukraine will have consequences for the West

According to Pavel, as president today, he sees the situation in the war in Ukraine not only from the battlefield perspective but also from principles.

"We have no choice but to give Ukraine everything it needs to succeed in its mission to restore sovereignty and control over its borders: anything less would be our failure," Pavel said.

He believes that Russia's victory in Ukraine could lead to unpleasant consequences for the West in the future. It would reinforce the idea that other regimes could achieve their goals by force and rely on the weakness of Western democracies.

The next year will be more difficult

Pavel points out that this year there will be only one chance for a major counteroffensive in Ukraine. Counteroffensives are expensive, labor-intensive, and time-consuming.

The President of Czechia emphasizes that it is impossible to conduct two or three major offensives in one year. His reasoning was based on observations that next year will host elections in Russia and the USA, and that this winter will be exceptionally challenging. Most of Ukraine's infrastructure is destroyed, and even with Western assistance, it cannot be fully restored.

"People will suffer, and due to fluctuations from countries currently supporting Ukraine, feelings of disappointment will increase. Naturally, this creates a situation not very conducive to the continuation of counteroffensive operations. Winter will provide Russia, which has already shifted its industry into a wartime regime, with time for recovery," Pavel stated.

He clarifies that Russia produces significantly more large-caliber ammunition, more tanks, and recruits more soldiers. Additionally, the Kremlin is negotiating arms supplies with several countries. For instance, North Korea has the potential for 1 million artillery shells.

"If we lose the ability to maintain support for Ukraine, next year may turn out to be even more favorable for Moscow. This year is crucial for laying the groundwork for success; next year will be more challenging," said the President of Czechia.

Insufficient weapon deliveries to Ukraine

President Pavel acknowledges that deliveries of military equipment from the West are insufficient to allow Ukraine to continue high-intensity operations.

He also says that Western countries have not fulfilled their promises regarding supplying artillery ammunition to Ukraine, and the preparation for F-16s is not progressing as quickly as desired.

Moreover, after deliveries of Storm Shadow from the UK and similar missiles from France, Ukraine expected to receive German Taurus missiles. However, Berlin has not yet decided whether to supply these missiles or not.

"This creates a supply imbalance, and uncertainty from the Ukrainian side is not a good basis for military planning," summarized the Czech President.

Other statements by Petr Pavel about the war in Ukraine

Earlier, Czech President Petr Pavel stated that Russia could fully restore its combat capability within six years.

According to him, the current situation on the battlefield does not indicate that Ukraine can gain a military advantage, and time currently favors Russia.

Pavel also mentions that the supply of armaments needed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine for success is currently hindered. The ongoing combat operations in Ukraine bear a significant risk, namely war fatigue.