New sanctions against Russia: Why Trump threatening Putin and what’s next
US and Russian Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin (Getty Images)
Contradictory statements are coming from the US regarding sanctions on Russia. On one hand, Washington is considering plans to ease them, while on the other, it is looking to strengthen restrictive measures.
What the Trump administration is really aiming for and whether European sanctions against Russia could be lifted – in material by RBC-Ukraine.
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US President Donald Trump promises to impose additional sanctions on Russia. These will be extensive and will affect the banking and energy sectors. Additionally, he promises to introduce tariffs on trade with Russia.
Forcing Russia to ceasefire
Restrictive measures could be imposed as early as this week, said the US president. In this way, Washington hopes to secure Moscow's agreement to a ceasefire.
"Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely 'pounding' Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large-scale banking sanctions, sanctions, and tariffs on Russia until a ceasefire and final settlement agreement on peace is reached," said the US president.
In fact, this statement was made just days before negotiations between Ukraine and the US, where it may be possible to sign an agreement on natural resources and discuss the vision of a future peace deal.
Following these talks, the US is expected to meet with the Russians, where they will discuss Russia's next steps. Trump stated that if Russia did not agree to a ceasefire and peace talks with the US administration, they would have to impose strict sanctions on them, adding that he already had a relevant bill.
Such statements come against the backdrop of previously expressed intentions to ease sanctions, particularly energy-related ones. This situation effectively confirms that the US intends to use the sanctions mechanism to secure concessions from Russia in preparation for a major ceasefire agreement.
What’s the logic behind Trump’s threats?
Head of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies, Volodymyr Fesenko, believes that while these contradictory statements may seem like "schizophrenia" at first glance, there is logic behind them. "As the Americans say, we show both the whip and the carrot on the table. Choose. Want the sanctions lifted? Negotiate with us. The Russians find this interesting," he said in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
For now, the strengthening of sanctions is just a threat. A bill on this has been prepared, but it may not be adopted. If desired, Trump could impose sanctions unilaterally — without a law.
Fesenko also believes that the statement about new sanctions could be an attempt to legitimize pressure on Ukraine. "Look, we also want to pressure Russia in the same way (as we do on Ukraine)," the expert noted.
However, he does not rule out the possibility that the threat of additional sanctions could be realized if negotiations between Trump and Putin fail or do not lead to the expected result for the United States.
EU sanctions under threat
Currently, there is no certainty that the EU will be able to extend sanctions against Russia. Their validity is extended every six months. The sanctions will expire on March 15, but Budapest may disrupt their continuation.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated back in January that he would agree to the extension of sanctions if his conditions are met. The politician demands the restoration of gas transit through Ukraine and may also set a condition for lifting certain personal sanctions on Russians. This concerns eight individuals whose names have not been disclosed.
As of today, fulfilling the condition for gas transit is practically impossible. Neither Ukraine nor the EU intends to take any steps to make it happen.
RBC-Ukraine has previously reported that an alternative option to reduce gas costs, including for Hungary, is being discussed. This involves gas being pumped into Ukrainian storage facilities for use by Ukraine, Slovakia, Hungary, and Moldova as needed.
In Ukraine, risks of not extending sanctions are acknowledged, but sources in the government and the Office of the President say they are small. "There are risks, but it's not accurate to say they are significant. We hope everything will be fine in the end (the sanctions will be extended - ed.)," said one of the sources, though they did not specify the basis for this hope.
In the EU, however, there seems to be less optimism. In early March, EU leaders managed to thwart Hungary's attempt to block a summit on Ukraine. However, when it comes to extending sanctions, European diplomats are preparing for a "merciless battle," as reported by Euractiv.
Diplomats believe Hungary deliberately "held fire" before the crucial vote on extending the EU sanctions against Russia. The sanctions package requires unanimous support from all 27 EU countries, allowing Orbán to make demands or even block the decision.
As RBC-Ukraine reported, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham will introduce a bill on new sanctions against Russia this week. These sanctions will target the banking and energy sectors.
The European Union is already working on the 17th sanctions package against Russia. Foreign ministers have also discussed increasing military aid to Ukraine.
