NATO will not offer Ukraine membership at this week’s meeting - Reuters

In a letter to his NATO counterparts ahead of the meeting, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stated that an invitation would remove one of Russia’s main arguments in waging the war, namely, preventing Ukraine’s accession to the Alliance.

However, several diplomats said on condition of anonymity that among NATO's 32 members, there are no signs of the necessary consensus for such a decision at the foreign ministers' meeting in Brussels.

"It will take weeks and months to get consensus. I don't see that happening tomorrow, I would be very surprised," a senior NATO diplomat said on Monday.

A senior US official noted to Reuters that the meeting will focus on strengthening support for Ukraine, ensuring the country is in the strongest possible position next year as it enters potential negotiations.

"The best way to do that is to surge money, munitions, and mobilization," said the official, speaking anonymously.

Ukraine's NATO membership prospects

Ukraine views NATO membership as the best guarantee of its future security. Under Article 5 of the mutual defense treaty, members of the Alliance are committed to treating an attack on one as an attack on all and helping each other in defense.

Some NATO members, like Hungary, have openly opposed Ukraine's joining the Alliance. Other countries, including the current governments of the United States and Germany, have also indicated that they do not believe the time is right.

At the end of November, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly adopted a resolution calling for accelerated membership for Ukraine.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha urged his counterparts at the December 3-4 ministerial meeting in Brussels to agree on an invitation to the Alliance.

According to Bloomberg, the Biden administration considered making a public call for Ukraine's official invitation to NATO. However, it refrained from this decision due to the low likelihood of success.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is convinced that placing Ukrainian-controlled territory "under NATO's umbrella" would stop the hot phase of the war.

At the same time, the president believes that Article 5 on collective defense cannot apply only to Ukrainian-controlled territory but to the entire country during wartime.

NATO has stated that Ukraine will join its ranks and that the country's path to NATO is irreversible, but it has not extended an invitation or set a timeline for membership.

Any such decision will ultimately depend on NATO's dominant power, the United States, making it a key issue for Donald Trump when he returns to the presidency next month.