NATO scrambles to adapt after Ukraine reshapes drone warfare strategy
Military personnel of the NATO alliance (Photo: Getty Images)
NATO is reviewing its air surveillance strategy under the influence of the experience of the wars in Ukraine and Iran, where low-flying drones and missiles have become a major threat, according to Breaking Defense.
"Price war" as a new reality
According to Admiral Vandier, the Alliance is now forced to think in terms of a price war: the cost of a single shot, the best ways to detect and destroy a target at an optimal price compared to the enemy's costs.
"We’ve seen what is going on in these places. Today the only thing we have is cost-war, where we need to think on an economical basis: the price per shot, the best ways to alert, detect or kill at the better cost [than the enemy]," he emphasized.
NATO is rethinking the entire spectrum of surveillance and defense: integrated airspace monitoring, command and control systems, and air defense assets. This is becoming more critical for a protracted war than just the number of missiles.
New system to replace outdated AWACS
A key element in enhancing capabilities is the AFSC (Allied Federated Surveillance & Control) program. It is intended to replace the aging E-3A AWACS aircraft, which have been in service since the 1980s. However, the next AWACS will not be a single platform – it will be a system of systems.
"It will use space, airborne, ground components, among others, as well as enhanced radars — that will be very difficult to kill [speaking about AFSC program]," Vandier explained.
In November 2025, a multi-billion-dollar deal for six Boeing E-7A Wedgetail aircraft as an interim platform fell through due to a loss of strategic and financial rationale. To accelerate the program, NATO last month issued a request to industry for technologies to detect aerial threats at altitudes up to 10,000 feet.
Interim solution
A group of 10 NATO member countries has agreed to acquire a replacement for the E-3A fleet under the initial AFSC initiative, but the aircraft type has not yet been selected. The enhanced surveillance system is expected to use data not only from new platforms but also from airborne (podded or manned), ground-based, maritime, and space-based assets of member states.
Under the plan, based on industry responses, NATO will prepare a program for the first phase of this system by the end of 2026.
Recently, discussions on strengthening European defense autonomy have intensified significantly. As the WSJ wrote, European countries have begun secretly developing a Plan B in case the US withdraws from NATO – to be able to independently deter Russian aggression without the support of American troops.
Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares stated directly that the EU must move toward creating its own army and deeper defense integration in order to take security into its own hands.
At the same time, the pace of rearmament remains the main obstacle. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized during talks in Brussels that weapons production in Europe needs to be urgently accelerated – the current pace is too slow for the existing threats.
