NATO faces risk of Russian attack before 2029, Latvian army chief says
Photo: Latvian general identifies Russia's key advantage over NATO in a potential war (Getty Images)
Russia has built up an advantage in drones and could use it against NATO countries through the end of 2028, while the Alliance has not yet completed its rearmament, the Financial Times cites Latvian Armed Forces Commander Kaspars Pudāns.
The advantage is not in technology, but in scale
General Pudāns explained that Moscow does not have better drones than NATO countries. But it produces them in much larger numbers and adapts more quickly.
"Their advantage is the scalability of drones. They are able to quickly replenish the stocks, to have big numbers on a big scale," the general said.
Most NATO military modernization programs will not take effect until around 2029. According to Pudāns, this period is potentially dangerous.
"If I were in the Kremlin, I would say if we do something, then we should do it by the end of 2028," he said.
A senior defense official from one NATO country expressed a similar view. In his opinion, Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin has at least two reasons to act sooner: uncertainty over US policy after Trump and rising defense budgets in Europe.
Combat experience as an advantage
Both sides in the war in Ukraine use thousands of drones every day. But, according to the article, Russia has gained an advantage through constant battlefield experimentation and the rapid improvement of technologies in combat conditions.
NATO forces currently have far less experience. Last month, during British Army exercises that simulated a war scenario in Estonia, commanders predicted that drone supplies would run out in less than a week.
The threat of hybrid attacks is already here
Pudāns distinguished between two levels of threat. A large-scale invasion is currently unrealistic because Russia is occupied with Ukraine. However, hybrid actions— sabotage, cyberattacks, and disinformation — could occur at any moment.
"We live with the assumption that aggression in some form could happen already tonight," the general emphasized.
Latvia has already begun installing "dragon's teeth" and anti-tank ditches along its entire border with Russia. The barriers are arranged in three rows spanning about 10 meters in width, with each element weighing one and a half tons.
Meanwhile, newly appointed Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs announced plans to end trade with Russia. He acknowledged, however, that some sectors, particularly pharmaceuticals, would require a special approach.
