Most Ukrainians would back ceasefire only with security guarantees, poll finds
Poll reveals the key condition for a ceasefire among Ukrainians (photo: Getty Images)
More than 60% of Ukrainians would support a ceasefire along the current front line — but only under one condition, according to a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).
Four scenarios to choose from
KIIS tested how Ukrainians react to different options for ending the fighting. Each respondent was presented with only one of four scenarios, selected at random. All scenarios assumed a ceasefire along the current front line, with Russia effectively retaining control over the occupied territories, but without official recognition of that fact.
The only difference was the security component:
- Scenario 1 – "Without security guarantees": the fighting stops, but Ukraine receives neither security guarantees, nor money, nor weapons.
- Scenario 2 – "Symbolic presence of European troops": European Union troops are stationed in Ukraine, but far from the front line and would not take part in combat in the event of a new invasion.
- Scenario 3 – "Own forces + Allied resources": allies provide Ukraine with significant amounts of money, weapons, and missiles.
- Scenario 4 – "European Shield": European Union troops are stationed near the front line and would repel an attack in the event of renewed aggression.
What the results showed
Without any guarantees, the majority are against it. If Ukraine receives neither security guarantees, nor weapons, nor financial support, 61% categorically reject such a ceasefire. Only 32% are willing to support it, and mostly reluctantly.
Results of the KIIS poll (photo: kiis.com.ua)
A symbolic European presence is not convincing. If European Union troops are stationed far from the front line and do not participate in combat, 49% are against it and 42% support it. This option is better than the first one, but still not enough for the majority.
If allies provide large-scale support with resources, 53% support a ceasefire, while 37% reject it. This is the first scenario in which supporters outnumber opponents.
The "European Shield" received the highest level of support. The option of deploying European Union troops near the front line with actual participation in defense in the event of a new invasion is supported by 61% of Ukrainians. 33% are categorically opposed.
The Rating Group previously studied Ukrainians' attitudes toward the ban on the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, and the majority of citizens supported the decision.
A separate survey found that most Kyiv residents consider the capital a comfortable place to live. According to the poll, living conditions have improved compared to 2021.
