Lithuania's defense at risk as pro-Russian forces grow, analyst says
Photo: Pro-Russian forces are undermining Lithuania's defense capabilities (Getty Images)
Pro-Russian forces have recently been gaining popularity in Lithuania, attempting through their actions to undermine the country’s defense capabilities, according to an RBC-Ukraine article Europe's risk zone: Which countries are prepared to deter Russian aggression.
"In Lithuania, up to a third of active voters are some variation of 'vatnik' (pro-Russian - ed.) sentiment. I mean people who don't just write or say things and hold an opinion, but actually go to elections and vote for parties and politicians," notes Lithuanian political analyst Vytautas Bruveris.
According to him, this segment of society quieted down somewhat in 2022, but is now becoming active again. Moreover, the Dawn of Nemunas Party, which represents their interests, has joined the ruling coalition in Lithuania.
"This is an unprecedented situation in Lithuanian history. Openly pro-Russian, anti-Western, anti-Ukrainian narratives have been legitimized. And most importantly, they are now intensifying their offensive against Lithuania's traditional security and foreign policy," adds Bruveris.
For example, a heated debate has been ongoing in Lithuania for over a year regarding the construction of a new large military training ground near the town of Kapčiamiestis, in the Suwałki Corridor area.
At the same time, Dawn of Nemunas is actively opposing the project, as the creation of the training ground will allegedly lead to the mass expropriation of agricultural land and forests from residents and worsen the environmental situation.
How Russia threatens Baltic states
Earlier, the Baltic Defense Initiative published a scenario suggesting that Russia might need as little as 90 days to force the Baltic states to surrender. The Russians wouldn’t even need to deploy their army; they would achieve their goals using missiles and drones.
The Kremlin has hinted at a right to self-defense following accusations by Finland and the Baltic states that they are allowing Ukrainian Armed Forces drones to fly through their airspace to strike Russia. Moscow may invoke Article 51 of the UN Charter, Shoigu warned.
Meanwhile, Sweden does not rule out that Russia may soon seize one of the islands in the Baltic Sea, and thus test how NATO would respond to the provocation. There are plenty to choose from—the region has over 400,000 islands.
