Lithuania reveals how Russia could seize Vilnius without sending troops
Photo: Lithuanian army soldier (Getty Images)
Russia could need as few as 90 days to force the Baltic states to capitulate. According to the scenario, the occupiers wouldn't even need to deploy ground troops—they could achieve their goal with missiles and drones, reports Defense News.
A scenario developed by the Baltic Defense Initiative highlights specific vulnerabilities in Lithuania and aims to close critical gaps as quickly as possible.
Analysts in Vilnius modeled a potential conflict based on lessons from the war in Iran. They forecast a critical window of opportunity for the Kremlin in December 2027—a period marked by political turmoil in Europe and US exhaustion.
Under the scenario, Marine Le Pen hypothetically comes to power in France and withdraws the country from NATO's nuclear umbrella. The United States, meanwhile, has been drained by a prolonged war in Iran for over a year and a half.
Washington's arsenals are depleted, leaving it unable to defend its European allies. Russia seizes the moment to launch a rapid strike.
Hypersonic missiles and total destruction
The initial blow could come in the form of hypersonic missile strikes targeting Lithuanian government buildings. This would be followed by wave after wave of kamikaze drones. Over 60 days, Moscow could launch more than 170,000 Shahed-type drones, the scenario says.
Vilnius would effectively be wiped off the map. Russia would systematically destroy:
- all bridges,
- every power plant,
- hospitals and water treatment facilities.
No Russian soldier crosses the border, yet the country is paralyzed. Life in cities becomes impossible, and by day 90, the final stage arrives: Moscow issues an ultimatum.
"On Day 90, Moscow issues an ultimatum: all three Baltic states accept Russian occupation — or Riga and Tallinn are next," the Baltic Defense Initiative report states.
A constitutional trap for Lithuania
Thiebaut Devergranne, the Initiative founder, points to another danger—a legal loophole in Lithuania's system. If Russia eliminates both the president and the speaker of parliament in a single strike, the state could lose its chain of command.
The constitution does not clearly define the line of succession, leaving uncertainty over who would assume the role of commander-in-chief. This creates ideal conditions for chaos.
"We think this should be addressed," Devergranne emphasized.
Analysts have already prepared around 200 defense proposals based on the French "sovereignty through strength" model—a deterrence strategy designed to make aggression too costly.
Is Europe ready for a major war?
Experts are divided. Some consider the scenario overly pessimistic. Eastern Europe is not standing idle, and the Baltic states have sharply increased defense spending.
Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service previously offered its own assessment, suggesting Russia is unlikely to attack NATO within the next two years. Europe has time to strengthen its defenses—but not to relax.
The scenario involving 170,000 drones is based on Russia's real production rates. It reflects a reality that requires preparation now.
How Russia threatens the Baltic states
Earlier reports indicated that the Kremlin hinted at a "right to self-defense" after accusing Finland and the Baltic states of allowing Ukrainian drones to pass through their territory for strikes on Russia. Moscow could invoke Article 51 of the UN Charter, Sergei Shoigu warned.
Meanwhile, Sweden does not rule out the possibility that Russia could soon seize one of the Baltic Sea islands as a test of NATO’s response. The region includes more than 400,000 islands.
Sweden is already preparing for potential threats from Russia. The country is building two new submarines—Blekinge and Skåne—set to enter service in 2027–2028.
