Sweden warns of possible Russian attack on Baltic islands, points to Putin's plan
Photo: Sweden has warned of Russia's new plans in Europe (Getty Images)
Sweden does not rule out that Russia could in the near future seize one of the islands in the Baltic Sea — and test how NATO would respond to a provocation, says the Swedish armed forces chief, Michael Claesson, in an interview with The Times.
An island as a trap for NATO
According to Claesson, the Kremlin could launch a small naval operation in the Baltic Sea as early as tomorrow. The goal is to identify cracks within the alliance, especially since Donald Trump has openly threatened to reduce support for European partners.
Claesson stressed NATO should be vigilant and deter Russia from this kind of adventure through our presence in strategically important areas in the north and in the Baltic Sea.
400,000 islands to choose from
In September, the Swedish armed forces published a report that directly named a possible target — the island of Gotland. Russia could seize it by surprise — via a naval or airborne landing.
Claesson clarified: Russia has significantly more options. This does not have to be a particularly large-scale operation, but rather a demonstration of intent, after which one can wait to see the reaction at the political level, he explained.
What Swedish intelligence says
Swedish military intelligence warned in its recent report that the threat from Russia will grow. Moscow is building up military potential near Sweden and is already capable of delivering a limited strike in the region.
In five years, the situation could become even more serious. Russia will gain the capability to carry out an armed attack to seize large territories and subsequently establish maritime and air dominance.
After Ukraine, Europe next?
Claesson also warned: the end of the war in Ukraine will not mean peace for Europe. On the contrary, Russia will be able to regroup and shift resources westward.
He also does not rule out that they will prepare for some kind of military confrontation to actually restore some form of geopolitical expansion resembling the former Russian Empire, and perhaps even the Soviet Union.
Sweden has long been preparing for threats in the region. The country is building two new submarines — Blekinge and Skåne — which are expected to enter service in 2027–2028 and will patrol NATO’s eastern flank in the Baltic Sea.
Meanwhile, Sweden continues to support Ukraine. In March 2026, Stockholm allocated another €56 million to the Ukraine Energy Support Fund for the restoration of damaged infrastructure and preparation for the next heating season.
