Kremlin demands Ukraine's full diplomatic and military surrender - ISW

Analysts refer to statements by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who recently confirmed the Kremlin’s refusal to provide Ukraine with security guarantees from Western partners, and reminded of the "security guarantees" Russia agreed to in negotiations in Istanbul in April 2022.

The ISW notes that the draft Istanbul protocol of 2022 did not provide a basis for substantial security guarantees and would have left Ukraine defenseless against renewed aggression.

The draft assumed that:

• Russia, as the aggressor in the war in Ukraine, would be treated as a neutral “guarantor state” for Ukraine;

• Russia and China would have veto power over the mechanism for responding to future aggression in Ukraine;

• Ukraine would commit to neutrality, strict limits on the size and composition of its armed forces, and would never accept military assistance from its allies.

Analysts point out that Lavrov's statement is "the latest in a series from senior Kremlin officials indicating that the Kremlin continues to view the 2022 Istanbul draft treaty as the basis for any future peace settlement and is unwilling to compromise on its demands of both Ukraine and NATO."

"Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Kremlin officials have repeatedly rejected the US-proposed 28-point peace plan or any plan requiring Russia to compromise on any of its original war aims," the ISW noted.

Russia's demands

Recall that Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Moscow allegedly "leaves the door open for a peaceful settlement." At the same time, he noted that Russia would continue the war until Ukraine “makes the appropriate decisions.”

Recently, during talks in Abu Dhabi, Russia presented a new condition for ending the war. Russia now requires not only the surrender of Donbas but also recognition of it as Russian by "all countries" involved in the negotiations.

According to analysts from the Institute for the Study of War, the territorial and political demands of the aggressor country are significantly broader than the Kremlin’s public statements about Donbas intended for Western audiences.