Kremlin considers 3 scenarios for Ukraine war, including NATO threat
The Center for Countering Disinformation outlined Moscow's options (photo: Getty Images)
Moscow does not have a single plan of action — several scenarios are being developed simultaneously, from continuing hostilities to freezing the conflict and hybrid aggression against NATO, said Andrii Kovalenko, Head of the Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine.
War until 2028
The first scenario is the continuation of the full-scale war at least until 2028. Russia is currently betting on a spring-summer offensive this year.
However, such a scenario is impossible without a new wave of mobilization in Russia, the head of the Center for Countering Disinformation says.
"Deadlock because of generals"
The second option is a gradual "drift" toward a ceasefire and freezing of the conflict.
Ground is already being prepared for this: Kremlin propagandists are shaping a narrative that Kremlin leader Putin was poorly informed about the situation at the front, and that the war has "reached a deadlock due to the actions of generals who lied."
Hybrid aggression against NATO
"The third scenario is the continuation of the war against Ukraine with a parallel transition to a hybrid war with NATO closer to 2028. These could be aggressive actions against the Baltic states," Kovalenko said.
Specific tools being considered by Moscow:
- Drone strikes on Baltic countries;
- Deployment of small sabotage groups — about 20 people — to carry out operations on their territory;
- Information pressure around the topic of "NATO military factories that threaten Russia."
At the same time, in Russia, a bill is being promoted that would allow the use of the army in other countries for the so-called protection of Russian citizens.
Earlier, the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, made a loud statement about the end of the war. According to him, peace may come much sooner than most expect.
Russia continues to suffer significant equipment losses. According to data presented at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, the enemy loses hundreds of armored vehicles every month.
