It's no accident: Why Belarus sent Yak-130 aircraft into Ukraine, and what could happen next
Photo: Belarusian Armed Forces' combat training aircraft Yak-130 (belZMI)
A Belarusian combat training aircraft Yak-130 likely entered Ukrainian airspace today, prompting air raid alerts in Kyiv and northern regions. This was likely not an accident but a provocation by Russia with Belarus' assistance.
All known details about the Yak-130 incident and what it may signify are covered in the RBC-Ukraine report below.
What happened
At 2:28 PM (Kyiv time), the Ukrainian Air Force reported on its Telegram channel about a slow-moving aerial target crossing the state border from Belarus, flying towards the south over the Kyiv and Zhytomyr regions. A minute later, at 2:29 PM, an air raid alert was issued in Kyiv, with warnings also in northern regions.
While the Air Force did not specify the exact nature of the target, monitoring channels suggested it could have been a Belarusian Yak-130 aircraft.
The Telegram channel Belaruski Gayun reported that the target crossed the Belarus-Ukraine border around 2:25 PM. Preliminary information from monitoring groups indicated it was likely a Belarusian Yak-130 combat training aircraft entering Ukraine from the Gomel region.
However, there has been no official confirmation yet that it was indeed this specific aircraft.
Why it happened: expert names possible theories
In a comment to RBC-Ukraine, the Head of the Сenter of Military Law Researches, Oleksandr Musiienko, expressed the opinion that these could have been provocations carried out by Russia with the help of Belarus.
"This was no accident. It was a test of the reaction of Ukraine's Air Force. Additionally, I wouldn't rule out that it was also an attempt to detect the location of air defense systems and conduct reconnaissance. I don't exclude the possibility that this could indicate that Russia is preparing to resume attacks and airstrikes from Belarus. These are the theories I have for now," Musiienko said.
At the same time, the expert does not rule out the possibility that it could have been a coincidence, stating that it could have been just an "incident."
"But for some reason, I don't believe that, knowing what has happened from the Belarusian direction in the past. That's why I think these are deliberate actions," Musiienko added.
How Ukraine may respond in this case
The interviewee explains that Ukraine has clear actions that can be applied in such cases. He reminds that Ukrainian airspace is closed, and all neighboring countries are aware of this.
According to Ukrainian regulations, any aviation flights are prohibited except for Ukrainian aircraft or partners, with Kyiv's approval. Additionally, a state of martial law is currently in effect, which provides for appropriate countermeasures.
"The first thing, of course, is to immediately warn that the aircraft has crossed Ukraine's airspace and compel them to leave. If the pilot does not respond to the air traffic controllers' verbal warnings, then Ukrainian aviation will take to the skies, using gestures and possibly even firing warning rockets to indicate that they must leave," Musiienko explained.
According to him, if the aircraft refuses to comply and continues flying or intends to launch missiles, then that aircraft must be shot down.
"At one time, missiles were fired at us from the Belarusian direction. Aggression was carried out from there. This is not a joke. Therefore, I believe Ukraine will demonstrate clear and decisive actions, and if this occurs again, those aircraft will be shot down," Musiienko concluded.
Sources: Telegram channel of the Air Force and data from the monitoring group Belaruski Gayun, as well as an exclusive comment from Oleksandr Musiienko, Head of the Сenter of Military Law Researches.
