ISW sees no signs of Belarusian ground invasion into Ukraine
ISW assessed the risks of an offensive against Ukraine from Belarusian territory (photo: Getty Images)
There are currently no signs that Belarusian troops could launch a ground invasion into Ukraine, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts note that Belarus is unlikely to launch a ground invasion into Ukraine.
ISW experts have neither observed nor confirmed any buildup of Belarusian armed forces along the Belarus-Ukraine border that would be sufficient for a ground invasion.
"Russia also lacks the reserves that would be required to support Belarusian troops in a ground invasion of Ukraine," the analysts emphasize.
Threat from Belarus
Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia was attempting to drag Belarus into the war, building roads toward the Ukrainian border and setting up artillery positions there.
Later, the head of state reported that the Kremlin was preparing five scenarios of action.
In response to the threats, large-scale counterintelligence measures began in five regions (Chernihiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Volyn, and Rivne) to protect against sabotage and reconnaissance groups, involving enhanced checks of people, vehicles, and documents. At the same time, border areas are being mined, and fortifications are being built.
According to the president, due to security risks and appeals from border communities, the authorities, together with the Ministry of Defense and the government, are working on decisions regarding the additional strengthening of the air defense system in the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction.
Zelenskyy also stressed that the Belarusian leadership must understand the consequences of any aggressive actions against Ukraine.
In addition, Belarus claimed alleged regular border crossings by "Ukrainian combat drones."
Belarusian Security Council State Secretary Alexander Volfovich said that attempts by Ukrainian drones to cross the Belarusian border are allegedly being recorded "almost daily."
According to him, over the past week alone, the Belarusian side counted 116 such incidents, while air defense forces allegedly used response measures 59 times.
Minsk also stated that some of the drones allegedly attempted to attack the Belarusian border infrastructure.
Head of the Center for Countering Disinformation Andriy Kovalenko stated that Belarus is "lying about Ukrainian drones" and trying to stage provocations in Russia's interests.
Meanwhile, State Border Guard Service of Ukraine spokesperson Andriy Demchenko called the Belarusian side's statements "another attempt to accuse Ukraine of something and shift responsibility onto us."
