ISW reports when Ukrainian Defense Forces become ready for large-scale counteroffensive
Ukrainian Defense Forces require additional Western aid for a major offensive (photo: Getty Images)
Ukrainian armed forces will continue defensive efforts over the next six months and will not be able to conduct a large-scale counteroffensive operation until 2025, according to a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to analysts, Ukraine's armed forces are currently attempting to regain tactical initiative by conducting limited counterattacks in specific areas along the front lines. Ukrainian troops may be capable of carrying out these limited counteroffensive operations, even while primarily on the defensive, depending on the extent of Western aid received.
The report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also cites a July 11 publication in The New York Times where a NATO senior official stated that before conducting counteroffensive operations, Ukraine would need to await greater Western security aid and deploy more forces to the front lines. The official suggested that Ukraine might not be able to undertake such operations until 2025.
A senior US defense official stated that Ukrainian forces would remain on the defensive for the next six months, potentially until January 2025, and that Russian forces were unlikely to achieve significant successes during this period.
"ISW continues to assess that Russian forces currently remain unlikely to achieve operationally significant gains in Ukraine, and Russian President Vladimir Putin's articulated theory of victory aims for Russian forces to make consistent gradual creeping advances instead of pursuing rapid operationally significant maneuver," the report states.
The Institute also notes that Ukrainian forces are addressing personnel issues and forming several new brigades that could be deployed to support these initiatives. The timing and scale of Ukraine's participation in these initiatives will depend on the delivery of necessary Western security aid to equip these brigades.
ISW highlighted that Western aid to the front lines allowed Ukrainian forces to stabilize critical areas along the front, and since mid-May 2024, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have conducted tactically important and successful local counterattacks in the northern Kharkiv region and towards Kreminna on the border with the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
"Ukrainian forces will likely be able to intensify both the scale and regularity of counterattacks over the coming months as further Western security assistance arrives at the frontline and as Ukraine continues to build out reserves and new brigades," the report concludes.
Meanwhile, according to ISW, Russian forces are currently attempting to maintain constant offensive pressure on Ukraine to compel Ukrainian forces to allocate human and material resources to defensive operations rather than accumulating them for counteroffensive operations.
According to Institute analysts, Russian forces are seeking to achieve this effect through successive offensive operations in eastern and northeastern Ukraine, which stretch Ukrainian forces. However, despite these efforts, Ukrainian forces are leveraging their capabilities and Russian vulnerabilities to conduct tactical counterattacks.
Frontline situation
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russian forces continue attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses on a large scale in the Donetsk region.
Simultaneously, according to DeepState, Ukrainian defense forces have repelled invaders from the village of Sotnytskyi Kozachok on the border of the Kharkiv region with Russia.
For more on when the Ukrainian Armed Forces may launch an offensive and the factors hindering this in 2024, read the full article by RBC-Ukraine.
