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ISW explains Russian talk of Ukrainian 'counteroffensive' and real motive behind claims

ISW explains Russian talk of Ukrainian 'counteroffensive' and real motive behind claims Ukrainian servicemen on frontline (photo: Getty Images)

Russian milbloggers overstated recent Russian gains and are now trying to use claims of a Ukrainian "counteroffensive" as justification for Russian forces, according to an Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report.

ISW observed numerous complaints from Russian milbloggers themselves about systematic practice by Russian commanders of sending false reports to their superiors about alleged offensive actions.

Analysts drew attention to claims by a Russian military blogger that Ukrainian forces are allegedly using fog, and Russia is blocking access to Starlink terminals in Ukraine to conduct a "counteroffensive" near Sosnivka and Novooleksandrivka southeast of Oleksandrivka, as well as Nechaivka north of Huliaipole.

In particular, he claimed that Ukrainian forces had advanced toward Ternuvate northwest of Huliaipole.

Another Kremlin-linked war correspondent said Ukraine Defense Forces had launched a local counteroffensive in the eastern Zaporizhzhia region for the first time in a long while.

Russian propagandists claimed that Ukrainian Defense Forces fighters are conducting a counteroffensive, including using armored vehicles in conditions of fog and reduced Russian communications.

Meanwhile, a spokesperson for Ukraine Defense Forces South, Vladyslav Voloshyn, said Ukrainian forces fully control Ternuvate.

According to him, Russian forces unsuccessfully tried to plant their flag there to create the appearance of capturing the settlement.

Voloshyn stressed that the actual line of contact is at least 10–15 kilometers away from Ternuvate.

As ISW analysts conclude, Russian forces and later some Russian milbloggers likely previously exaggerated recent Russian offensive actions in directions of Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole.

Now they are trying to use statements about the Ukrainian "counteroffensive" to justify withdrawal from forward positions that Russian forces likely held for some time.

Yesterday, a spokesperson for Ukraine Defense Forces South, Vladyslav Voloshyn, told RBC-Ukraine that Russian propaganda resources publish distorted battlefield maps that significantly differ from the official information of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

According to him, the Russian side is trying to present isolated provocative actions as large-scale successes or a Ukrainian counteroffensive.