ISW explains how long Russia can maintain initiative in eastern Ukraine
Over time, Russian forces will not be able to maintain the offensive initiative in the east (photo: Getty Images)
Russian forces will not be able to maintain the offensive initiative indefinitely across the entirety of eastern Ukraine, according to a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The report noted that currently, Russia maintains the initiative across the entire theater of operations, allowing it to dictate the location, timing, intensity, and demands of combat operations in Ukraine. Russian forces have leveraged this advantage to set the pace of their offensive, enabling them to conduct more sustained offensive operations and largely avoid reaching a climax.
The ISW highlighted that Russian forces have made extensive efforts to build strategic and operational reserves ahead of the summer of 2024 to support ongoing offensive operations. However, the Russian army has likely expended and utilized many of these reserves in its offensives in eastern and northeastern Ukraine during the spring and summer of 2024.
Looking ahead, the Institute for the Study of War anticipates that Ukrainian operations in the Kursk region and the increased Russian focus on maintaining the pace of offensive operations in the Donetsk region will likely put additional strain on remaining operational reserves. Over time, this strain is expected to impact Russia's ability to sustain coherent offensive actions across the entire theater of operations.
"Further Russian redeployments to the Kursk region would also further weaken Russia's ability to sustain offensive operations in northeastern and eastern Ukraine, although Russian forces are more likely to begin decreasing offensive activity on lower-priority sectors of the front than to do so equally throughout the frontline," the ISW stated.
Frontline situation
According to the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Russian troops are actively attempting to advance on three fronts in the Donetsk region. Over the past day, approximately 100 combat engagements have occurred, with the enemy focusing their attacks most heavily on the Pokrovsk direction.
The Russian forces are less than 10 kilometers away from entering Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces are doing everything possible to hold their positions and prevent them from reaching the district center.
