Istanbul talks between Ukraine and Russia: Key agreements and next steps

Key questions

• What prevented a ceasefire agreement?

• What memorandum did Russia bring to Istanbul?

• What will the new large-scale prisoner exchange look like?

• Will Moscow return the abducted Ukrainian children?

• What deadline has Ukraine set for a meeting with Putin?

What’s going on with the memorandums, and will there be a ceasefire?

The Ukrainian delegation arrived in Istanbul with clear points, said Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. The first of them is an unconditional ceasefire starting immediately, with the possibility of extending it for three months.

"We consider this the foundation for initiating a peaceful settlement," Umerov noted.

Proposals for a possible ceasefire were prepared by both sides after the first meeting on May 16. Ukraine submitted its document a few days ago, while the Russians presented their so-called memorandum today. According to the head of the Ukrainian delegation, they will take a week to study the document in order to coordinate further steps.

First Deputy Foreign Minister Serhii Kyslytsia emphasized that the Ukrainian side did not receive a response to its document today. He also confirmed that he had not seen the draft memorandum until June 2.

"They handed it over to us during the meeting, so we cannot respond to it yet. We told Russia that we need time to review it," he added.

The head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, stated that the memorandum consists of two parts. The first outlines Moscow’s vision for long-term peace; the second lists steps for a full ceasefire. According to him, the second part "even contains some flexibility."

According to Axios, Moscow’s position remains unchanged. That is, the document includes demands for the withdrawal of forces from partially occupied regions, along with a set of other unacceptable conditions. The Ukrainian side has not officially commented on it.

Most likely, the Russians have once again arrived in Istanbul with maximalist demands. Serhii Kyslytsia also added that they flatly refuse an unconditional ceasefire. "None of these proposals were accepted by the Russian side. But we concluded that experts will continue to consider this idea," he said.

This was confirmed by Medinsky himself, who reported a proposal to introduce a 2–3 day ceasefire in specific areas of the front "so that commanders can retrieve the bodies of their soldiers."

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sharply reacted to this proposal. "I think (they're - ed.) idiots. Because a ceasefire is meant to prevent people from being killed," he said.

When asked by RBC-Ukraine to comment on the Russian memorandum, he said he hadn’t seen it, but judging by the leaks, it contains ultimatum-like demands.

What prisoner exchanges were agreed upon at the second meeting in Istanbul

The second point of the meeting in Istanbul was the release of all Ukrainians held by Russia. According to Umerov, they agreed to focus not on numbers, but on specific categories. For two categories, an exchange will take place on an all for all basis.

He said that the parties had agreed on an exchange of all severely wounded and sick prisoners, and that the second category was young soldiers aged 18 to 25.

In addition, they agreed on the return of the bodies of 6,000 deceased Ukrainian servicemen. Medinsky, for his part, stated that 6,000 bodies will be handed over next week "unilaterally," supposedly for Christian reasons, so they can be buried humanely. He added that he does not know if the Ukrainian side can return the bodies of deceased Russians, but if so, "we will accept them as well."

Regarding the future prisoner exchange, Medinsky called it the largest-scale exchange. He confirmed that under the all for all formula, young soldiers, as well as severely wounded and sick prisoners, will be exchanged. He even mentioned approximate numbers.

"The exchange of prisoners of war will be on a parity basis. In total, no fewer than 1,000 people — possibly more, up to 1,200. They're still counting," he said, adding that medical commissions will start working and exchanges will take place regularly, without waiting for major political decisions.

President Zelenskyy noted that there will definitely be another exchange of 1,000 for 1,000 and possibly another 200 for 200. According to him, lists will be exchanged with Russia this week, after which verification will begin.

Regarding the return of bodies, the president said that Ukraine agreed to return the bodies of 6,000 Russians. He also suggested there might be problems on the Russian side, since only 15% of the 6,000 bodies have been identified, and earlier, there were cases when dead Russian soldiers were passed off as deceased Ukrainians.

How Ukraine plans to pressure Russia on the issue of deported children

Separately, the Ukrainian side raised the issue of the transfer of illegally deported or held children from the occupied territories. Rustem Umerov reported that today a list of several hundred names was handed over to the Russians. And the head of the President’s Office, Andriy Yermak, called this initiative the first test of the sincerity of Russia’s intentions.

Medinsky, for his part, cynically stated that Russia did not kidnap the children but allegedly evacuated them. He said they are ready to return those children who have relatives. He also noted that earlier, Ukraine spoke about tens of thousands of Ukrainian children taken away, but in Istanbul, they handed over a list of just over 300 names.

"Don't stage a show for childless European old ladies," Western media quoted a cynical Russian negotiator as saying.

According to Zelenskyy, such statements reveal the Russians’ attitude toward the humanitarian aspect. He also noted that Ukraine accused them of kidnapping 20,000 children, but in response heard that the number is at most in the hundreds.

"Our team was offended by that. But to be honest, I'm not. I believe it's important not because of the number, but because they acknowledge the fact itself — that they took the children. We say it's thousands, they say hundreds. The important thing is that the fact is now recorded," Zelenskyy said.

There may indeed be some progress in returning Ukrainian children. At least the Russian official assured that the list of 339 names will be handed over to their Ombudsman’s office, and promised: "All families will be reunited; this is a matter of honor."

According to Axios, the Russians immediately proposed to return 10 children by July 10. But this is an extremely small portion of all the kidnapped Ukrainian children.

Will there be a meeting with Putin, and what deadline was set for the Russians?

The third point of the negotiations in Istanbul was a meeting at the level of leaders. Rustem Umerov stated that only at this level can all key issues be resolved. Moreover, it is not necessarily required that Zelenskyy and Putin meet strictly face-to-face. Other leaders—such as Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan—could also be involved.

"We believe that further work between the delegations makes sense only if it is aimed at preparing a leaders' meeting. We proposed to the Russian side to hold such a meeting by the end of this month — between June 20 and 30," the head of the Ukrainian delegation added.

Answering the question of when the third round might take place, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi reiterated that it can be discussed only if the Russian side is willing to prepare for a leaders’ meeting. In any case, official Kyiv is ready to participate in further rounds, regardless of the venue.

Notably, today Medinsky did not comment at all on the point about a leaders’ meeting or Ukraine’s demand to hold it between June 20 and 30. The Turkish side, which hosted the meeting, was far more active. President Erdoğan stated that bringing together Putin, Zelenskyy, and Trump in Ankara or Istanbul is his greatest wish.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy once again expressed his readiness for such a meeting. "I told him (Erdoğan – ed.) that I support a leaders' meeting because I have the impression that a ceasefire will not happen without our meeting," he said.

However, considering all the circumstances, a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin currently seems unlikely, especially within the time frame set for the end of the month. According to Ukrainian proposals, the parameters of a peace agreement are to be finalized at such a meeting. But judging by what Moscow might demand in its memorandum, even the prospects for a lasting ceasefire seem rather dim.

Today, Russian media published the text of the memorandum. According to the document, a ceasefire would require Ukraine to completely withdraw its forces from Russian territories, as well as from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.

A second option is also outlined. It includes a ban on redeployment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, halting mobilization and announcing demobilization, lifting martial law, and stopping arms supplies from Western partners.

As for the response to the Ukrainian document, Putin’s delegates said they would need at least a week to review it.