German-like model of Ukraine's membership in NATO under consideration - Kyiv's opinion
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte (photo: president.gov.ua)
For a year and a half now, the West has been talking about Ukraine's possible accession to NATO following the German scenario, i.e., the model when Germany became a member of the Alliance despite the division into western and eastern parts, reports the Financial Times. Kyiv says this is mere speculation, according to RBC-Ukraine's source.
According to the newspaper, Ukraine's victory plan, presented to Joe Biden last week, is to ask its allies to strengthen Ukraine's military and diplomatic positions. To bring Russia to the negotiating table.
“Western diplomats and increasingly Ukrainian officials have come round to the view that meaningful security guarantees could form the basis of a negotiated settlement in which Russia retains de facto, but not de jure, control of all or part of the Ukrainian territory it currently occupies,” the FT notes.
“Land in exchange for NATO”
Neither Ukraine nor its partners propose to recognize Russia's sovereignty over the territories seized since 2014. However, there is a “tacit acceptance” that these lands will be returned by diplomatic means in the future.
Despite the fact that such a scenario remains a taboo for Ukrainians in public, it may be the “only game in town” (the only available option - ed.), the Western official noted.
The terms and nature of security guarantees for Ukraine are being discussed more openly. NATO allies fear that providing guarantees under Article 5 on collective security will draw them into a war. But not all share this view. “There are ways of solving that,” said former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
According to him, the US guarantees to Japan do not apply to the Kuril Islands, four of which Tokyo considers to be its own. He also cited the example of West Germany, which joined NATO despite the fact that there was also an East Germany. However, it is necessary to determine where Article 5 will apply and Ukraine should control this territory.
West German model
As an example for Ukraine, it has been discussed in foreign policy circles for a year and a half. Former Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Dan Fried was one of the first to propose it. Former Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker and Stoltenberg's predecessor, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, also favor this model.
The idea is also gaining momentum in official circles.
“I don't think that full restoration of control over the entire territory is a prerequisite. If there is a demarcation, even an administrative border, then we can treat [that] as temporary and accept Ukraine into NATO in the territory it will control at that time,” Czech President Petr Pavel said.
Skeptics fear that Moscow could provoke an escalation. After all, joining NATO guarantees Ukraine's sovereignty and will allow it to continue the Western vector that Vladimir Putin is trying to destroy.
Perhaps the most convincing argument is offered by historian Mary Sarotte. Her approach is that the conditions of NATO membership for Ukraine can be individualized. For example, Norway has pledged not to host NATO bases.
Or like West Germany, which has made it clear that the division of the country is temporary. But it will not take measures to reunite by force.
Ukraine should define a military defense border and agree not to deploy NATO permanent troops or nuclear weapons unless there is a threat of attack. And it should refuse to use force outside the territories it controls (except in self-defense, Sarotte added).
Other analysts argue that West Germany is a poor parallel because its temporary borders were recognized by both the West and the USSR. In Ukraine, however, borders are fought over every day.
Kyiv's opinion on the matter
According to RBC-Ukraine's source in the government, there are currently no official, clear, or any other political proposals for Ukraine to join NATO or receive any security guarantees similar to Article 5 of the Alliance's Charter.
The source also noted that there are no “Ukrainian officials” who are “increasingly” inclined or not inclined to any options, and the FT journalists did not speak to anyone who actually makes decisions.
“We have a peace formula, we have a Peace Summit, we have a victory plan. Everything else is just speculation. We are definitely not trading sovereignty and territories,” the source added to RBC-Ukraine.
Earlier, former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Ukraine could be admitted to NATO despite the presence of occupied territories.
US President Joe Biden may upgrade the status of Ukraine's application during a meeting in the Ramstein format on October 12. In particular, a number of media outlets report that Ukraine may be formally invited to join NATO, but the procedure can only be completed after the war against Russia ends.
