SpaceX debris heading to the Moon: What happens after collision
SpaceX rocket to crash into the Moon at extreme speed (photo: NASA)
The upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is on a collision course with the Moon. According to scientists’ calculations, the object will crash into the lunar surface in August this year at a speed more than seven times the speed of sound, according to Project Pluto.
Trajectory and origin of the debris
Renowned astronomer Bill Gray identified and tracked the object in September 2025 using specialized software. The collision trajectory has also been confirmed by data from the U.S. Space Force cataloging system.
The debris is the second stage of a Falcon 9 rocket launched on January 15, 2025.
The main purpose of that mission was to deliver two private lunar spacecraft: the Blue Origin Mission 1 lander from Blue Origin, which successfully landed on the Moon, and the Japanese Hakuto-R Mission 2 module from ispace, which failed and crashed onto the lunar surface.
The spent stage is now traveling at approximately 8,700 km/h. Due to the enormous kinetic energy of the impact, the metal will completely vaporize, leaving only a small fresh crater and scattered rock debris.
This is not the first such case — in March 2022, a similar Chinese Chang’e-5 T1 rocket stage also crashed into the Moon.
Why random impacts on the Moon are becoming a problem
A single Falcon 9 impact itself does not pose a danger, but it highlights a growing future issue. As NASA prepares to establish a permanent lunar base near the Moon’s south pole, the number of missions in that direction is rapidly increasing.
If government agencies and private companies do not implement controlled deorbiting of rocket stages, uncontrolled debris could pose a direct threat to future lunar settlements and astronauts.
Currently, NASA closely tracks space debris only around Earth to protect the International Space Station (ISS), which regularly performs avoidance maneuvers. In the future, the U.S. Space Force will need to expand monitoring to the entire space between Earth and the Moon.
Space debris crisis
According to a report by the European Space Agency (ESA), the situation in near-Earth orbit traffic has sharply worsened due to the deployment of large commercial satellite constellations.
In particular, SpaceX has already surpassed 10,000 active Starlink satellites this year. This high density is causing more accidental micro-collisions between operational satellites and remnants of old rockets, producing thousands of small debris fragments that are difficult to track.
Scientists are already developing theoretical concepts for cleaning space using giant nets, electromagnets, or harpoons, but none have yet been implemented in practice.
Meanwhile, uncontrolled debris threatens not only space but also Earth. On January 17, 2025, a large unidentified fragment (likely part of an Indian rocket) fell directly onto a village in Kenya.
For safe disposal of decommissioned spacecraft, international agencies usually use a remote area in the South Pacific known as the “Point Nemo.” However, thousands of uncontrolled objects remain in orbit and may re-enter Earth’s atmosphere at any time.
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