Experts evaluate risk of encircling Avdiivka - 7 kilometers between pincers
Photo: experts spoke about the threat of a possible encirclement of the defenders of Avdiivka (Getty Images)
The Russian occupiers managed to accumulate a large amount of resources in recent weeks, having withdrawn from other areas of the front, and are trying to surround Avdiivka from the southern and northern flanks. So the enemy wants to cut off Ukrainian forces from supplies, military experts say.
According to the reserve major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, military expert Oleksii Hetman, the intervenors did not plan frontal assaults, but rather to surround Avdiivka to make it impossible to supply everything necessary in the city.
"We understand that there are operational depots there, and you need to constantly deliver water, and food, and evacuate the wounded. Everything that's needed to support the army for combat operations. There are no stores there. So they're trying to cut off the supplies and control these routes with firepower," he says.
The expert explained that in this way the enemy is trying to bleed the Defense Forces in Avdiivka and near the city.
In an interview with RBC-Ukraine, military analysts note that the situation in Avdiivka is frankly difficult. Currently, the occupiers have concentrated about 40,000 troops in the direction, and are pressing from the side of Vesele and Krasnohorivka from the north, and the side of Vodyanyi and Experienced from the south.
The other day, Russian troops took control of the highway that connects Avdiivka with the mainland, notes military expert Vladyslav Seleznov.
He added that today the distance between the "pincers" is only seven kilometers. If the invaders succeed in occupying Orlivka in the north and the villages of Tonenke and Severne in the south, the situation for the Ukrainian army will be extremely difficult.
"The chances depend on the resources of the Ukrainian defense forces. If we have shells, then all their chances will turn into a pile of meat, which the Ukrainian artillery will mix with the ground. If resources are insufficient, the situation will be difficult, and our troops will conduct a maneuvering defense, including retreating to the west of Avdiivka," Seleznov says.
Screenshot of the map of the Avdiivka direction (source: DeepState)
At the same time, analysts repeat that the Russians do not have any special military sense in the strategic plan for the occupation of Avdiivka. Trying to seize this direction, the Russian army does not spare human resources, literally cutting down on Avdiivka. The main goal, in this case, is more political than military - to occupy the city, which Russian propaganda has been talking about for 9 years, and to declare another "victory".
"The threat of Avdiivka's encirclement exists. However, we understand that our aerial reconnaissance and military intelligence are working, and we know which units are concentrated against us there. We even know the names of the commanders participating there. We have their psychological profiles to know what to expect from them. If there is a probability that they have enough strength and resources for an encirclement, we will either reinforce it with reserves, or we'll withdraw because no one will leave people in the encirclement," Hetman adds.
Battles for Avdiivka
In October the Russian occupiers stepped up their offensive on Avdiivka. The enemy is shelling the city and neighboring settlements.
As Vitalii Barabash, the head of the Avdiika Regional Military Administration, notes, this offensive is the largest since 2014. For assaults, the occupiers mainly use infantry, rather than equipment. However, the Ukrainian military repels enemy attacks.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine estimate the losses of the occupiers near Avdiivka since October 10 at 6,500 people. The defense forces called the offensive of the Russian Federation near Avdiivka the greatest defeat of the Russians.
Recently, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that in the Avdiivka region, the Russians, with the support of aviation, are continuing their assaults to surround the city.
Earlier, the head of the Avdiika Regional Military Administration expressed the opinion that the Russian troops are most likely ready for the third wave of assault on the city, but the weather conditions do not allow them to use the equipment.
