Expert assesses potential expansion of nuclear-armed nations
Photo: Nuclear weapons (Getty Images)
More and more countries are considering developing nuclear weapons. The reason is growing distrust in the security guarantees provided by the United States, says John Caves, Senior Research Associate at the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
With Donald Trump's return to the White House, nuclear deterrence has once again been a topic of international politics.
When the US no longer seems like a reliable security guarantor, countries begin to seek alternative ways of protection - and nuclear weapons are once again becoming a serious topic of discussion.
There are several proven strategies to deter aggression: develop your own Armed Forces, turn your economy into one that is critical for the global market (as Taiwan has done), or possess nuclear weapons.
North Korea, Iran, Israel, India, and Pakistan have long taken the latter path. Now, new countries may join this list.
"It is a notable risk, though difficult to precisely assess. In a worst-case scenario, several countries located near China, Russia, and possibly Iran could seek nuclear weapons if they conclude they can no longer rely on the United States to ensure their security," Caves explains.
Among the potential candidates are South Korea and Japan, which both have strong industrial bases and experience with civilian nuclear programs.
In the Middle East, signals have increasingly been coming in recent years from Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Egypt - indicating that under certain conditions, they too might begin developing their own weapons of mass destruction.
At the same time, there are also deterrent factors. According to Caves, the threat of harsh sanctions, the risk of a preemptive strike, and international non-proliferation norms could prevent some governments from taking such a fatal step.
However, if the global security balance truly shifts, not all countries will be able to avoid the nuclear arms race.
Earlier, the reports indicated that France is considering deploying its nuclear weapons on the territory of its allies as a way to substitute the presence of US nuclear arms in Europe.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump stated that denuclearization could become an important initiative for the security of the planet and that China and Russia could also join this process.
