EU estimates when Ukraine could join bloc — The Guardian
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy with Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel (photo: Getty Images)
Ukraine and Moldova will officially launch the first stage of European Union membership negotiations on Monday in Luxembourg, The Guardian reports.
What will happen on Monday in Luxembourg
Senior EU officials and ministers from Ukraine and Moldova will formally launch talks on the first cluster — sections of the EU rulebook covering the rule of law and democracy.
This opens the door to negotiations in other areas, including the single market, the environment, and economic and social policy.
The start became possible after the April elections in Hungary brought a new government to power, and last Friday, EU member states unanimously agreed to open the first cluster.
In a joint statement, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa praised "the determination, courage and hard work shown by both countries."
In response, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: "Ukraine is doing what is necessary, and it is important that the EU is also keeping its word. The opening of the first cluster is significant political and moral support for our state and our people."
Four years, political decision
EU officials estimate that, given sufficient political will, Ukraine could complete the technical negotiations in about four years.
At the same time, they acknowledge that final membership is a political decision — accession requires a country to adopt thousands of EU laws and receive unanimous approval from all member states.
Heather Grabbe, a Bruegel think tank expert and former European Commission enlargement adviser, says the opening of the first cluster is indeed significant.
"It's the start of the process of getting a deal for membership. So it's very significant," she said.
However, Grabbe warns that this will be a reality check for Ukraine: accelerating the adoption, implementation, and enforcement of EU laws will not be possible and will come with administrative costs.
Ukraine as security argument for EU
Grabbe stresses that Ukraine needs the EU just as much as the EU needs Ukraine. She suggests adopting a security-first approach for Kyiv — integrating the country into the EU's security and defense policy as quickly as possible, where legislation is relatively flexible.
"Given that Ukraine is the most serious security and defence player on the continent, the only one with battle-hardened troops and a serious arsenal of effective weapons on the modern battlefield dominated by drones, the worst thing that could happen for European security is for some future Ukrainian government to turn against the EU and to become Eurosceptic," Grabbe said.
She added: "They're not going to turn towards Russia, but if they were to become disillusioned with the EU, this would be a disaster for European security.
The EU needs Ukraine at least as much as Ukraine needs the EU to assure all of our future security."
Yermak's arrest — a plus, reforms — a minus
EU officials generally praise Kyiv's reform efforts. High-profile arrests — including last month's detention of Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak, who was formally notified of suspicion in a major corruption investigation (he denies all allegations) — are seen in Brussels as a positive sign of authorities taking anti-corruption probes seriously.
However, the praise is tempered by disappointment over the pace of reforms: Ukraine has implemented only 15% of a 10-point plan agreed in December 2025 between EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos and Deputy Prime Minister Taras Kachka.
The plan includes strengthening the independence of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP), adopting an anti-corruption strategy, and reforming the procedures for appointing judges and prosecutors.
Notable that the opening of the first negotiation cluster became possible after Hungary lifted its blockade: Kyiv and Budapest managed to agree on 10 of 11 EU integration requirements.
In May 2026, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called on the EU to move as quickly as possible to the practical stage of negotiations, stressing that bilateral disputes between Kyiv and Budapest should not block Ukraine's path to European integration.
In early June, the Cypriot presidency of the Council of the EU began preparations for the formal opening of the first cluster.
