Estonian intelligence evaluates threat of Russian attack on Baltic countries
Photo: Ants Kiviselg (Wikipedia)
The head of the Intelligence Center of Estonia’s Defense Forces, Ants Kiviselg, said there is currently no intelligence indicating that Russia is preparing to attack the Baltic states, ERR reports.
According to Kiviselg, assessing the threat of aggression is a complex process that requires taking into account the state of Russia’s armed forces, the political intentions of the Russian government, and the broader international context at the same time.
He noted that, overall, Russia has not achieved its strategic goals in the war against Ukraine. Even the objectives that Russian forces managed to accomplish were carried out with significant delays compared to the original plan.
The real purpose of Russia’s mobilization
Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russia is restricting internet access to facilitate mobilization, and that the mobilized forces could potentially be directed against the Baltic states.
However, Estonian intelligence has a different view: the additional manpower is primarily needed by Russia to sustain its offensive in Ukraine.
"It will not be possible to maintain the current pace for long using prisoners and contract soldiers alone. A culmination point has been reached: if they want to preserve the scale of the offensive, mobilization becomes inevitable," Kiviselg explained.
The Kremlin’s irrationality factor
At present, Estonia sees no signs that new Russian units will be used against NATO countries or the Baltic states. The Defense Forces and the intelligence center are working daily to prevent a potential war.
At the same time, Kiviselg acknowledged that the Russian leadership remains dangerous due to its unpredictability in decision-making.
"From a rational standpoint, it would make no sense for Russia to open a new front in another region. But we have seen that it is not always rational in its decisions and can make strategic miscalculations," he said.
As a reminder, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that Russia could attack a NATO country within the coming months, not years. He also expressed doubts about whether the United States would respond adequately to such an attack.
RBC-Ukraine also reported that the Baltic states, in response to the threats, have urged the rest of Europe to rule out normalizing ties with Russia.
