Day X. Why US elections matter for Ukraine
The flags of Ukraine and the USA against the background of the Capitol (photo: Getty Images)
The US election is one of the year’s most pivotal global events, set to have a direct impact on the course of the Russia-Ukraine war.
RBC-Ukraine explains which aspects of a change in US leadership are crucial for continued support to Ukraine.
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The world, without exaggeration, is closely watching the US elections — not only allies worldwide but also adversaries like Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.
The United States remains the most powerful military force globally, wielding an extensive network of influence through allies and military bases on their territories. Washington also holds sway over international financial institutions and a significant portion of the global economy.
For Ukraine, the primary focus is on how the election will impact Russia's war against it. The stance of the new White House occupant, whoever it may be, will directly affect Ukraine's ability to continue its armed resistance next year or could pressure it toward negotiations. Several key dimensions warrant attention here.
US diplomacy
Due to its overall power, the US exerts a strong influence on allied support for Ukraine, especially among NATO members. Some NATO countries, like the United Kingdom, Canada, the Baltic states, and Northern European nations, fully back Kyiv with military and financial assistance and advocate for Ukraine's NATO membership. Poland shares this stance, though with certain nuances.
Meanwhile, Germany and some others provide support to Ukraine more cautiously and oppose its NATO membership. Germany, in particular, has occasionally declined to supply weapons, only doing so when similar arms have already been provided by the US. Notably, US weapons come with restrictions, such as a prohibition on strikes within Russian territory, which Germany also upholds.
US diplomatic efforts extend beyond NATO, gathering support from allies in East Asia and the Middle East. The Ramstein format, a defense contact group involving over 50 nations, is a prime example of these efforts.
US military power
The United States remains the world's most powerful military force and can deploy this strength if there is the political will to do so. One of the latest examples is the involvement of American air defense in countering Iranian missile strikes against Israel.
In the case of Ukraine, the focus is on providing military assistance. The Ukrainian leadership must continually persuade the US to supply new types of weapons. Nevertheless, US military aid remains crucial.
The US also possesses more direct leverage against Russia, including its nuclear arsenal and non-nuclear weaponry, which can be equally effective in many instances. This includes the aircraft carrier fleet and the Tomahawk cruise missiles. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has notably requested President Joe Biden to position Tomahawk missiles as part of a "non-nuclear" deterrence package against Russia.
Democrats and Harris do not even consider the direct use of weapons against Russia, while Trump stated in a Wall Street Journal interview on October 20 that he threatened Vladimir Putin with strikes on Moscow if he continued to pursue Ukraine. Trump did not clarify when or under what circumstances his conversation with Putin took place.
US sanctions
The US president, among other duties, forms the government by appointing key officials, including the Secretary of the Treasury, the Attorney General, and the Secretary of State, all of whom are involved in implementing sanctions against Russia.
Currently, US sanctions against the aggressor country are aimed at restricting Russia's access to Western technologies and raw materials, preventing the restoration of its military-industrial complex, and politically isolating Russia.
As with weapons, new sanctions packages from the US must be actively lobbied for. Meanwhile, Russia is continually seeking ways to circumvent these sanctions, which also requires a responsive approach.
Harris has repeatedly emphasized the importance of sanctions against Russia; however, she has not been particularly prominent in promoting them. Trump actively utilized sanctions as a tool of influence during his first presidential term and continues to view them as a means to pressure Russia during negotiations, often hinting at the potential lifting of sanctions while also speaking about strengthening them.
Congressional elections in the US
Alongside the presidential elections, special elections will also be held for both chambers of the US Congress. The House of Representatives will be entirely renewed, and one-third of the Senate will be up for election. Congress plays a key role in approving the US budget and aid to Ukraine.
Overall, there is bipartisan support for Ukraine in Congress, notably from the Democratic and Republican parties. However, many congressmen align closely with the US president. In this context, a victory for Harris and her party may not significantly alter the current dynamic.
Within the Republican Party, there is a small but influential faction of Trump supporters who have consistently opposed aid to Ukraine. Trump himself has used the topic of Ukraine to criticize the current US president. Earlier this year, this led to a four-month blockage of aid to Ukraine.
It remains unclear what position Trump and his supporters will take in Congress after the elections. This will depend on the election results, whether the candidates accept the outcome, and ultimately on the ability of Ukrainian diplomacy to find common ground with the new US president.
Earlier, RBC-Ukraine reported on the specifics of conducting exit polls in the US and when their results can be expected.
Also, read about why it is crucial to closely monitor the election results in seven "swing" states that will determine the next US president.
For more news on the presidential campaign, candidate rankings, and the "underlying issues" of the electoral system, check out the Elections in the US section on RBC-Ukraine.
Sources: statements from American and Ukrainian politicians as well as information from open sources regarding the governance structure of the US.
