Swing state spotlight: How key states decide 2024 US presidential election

The United States has a unique two-tiered electoral system. First, residents of each state select electors, who then choose the president and vice president. This system is tied to the origin of the United States as a union of separate states. Today, the role of the electors is largely symbolic, but the two-tiered system remains.

In most states, elections follow a "winner-takes-all" model, meaning that all of the state's electors go to the candidate who may receive just over half of the votes. In practice, this means that one needs to secure victories in specific states to win the US presidency. This can and has often led to situations where the national popular vote winner does not necessarily win the presidency.

Most states traditionally vote either for Democrats or Republicans. However, there are so-called swing states, where candidates from both parties have roughly equal chances of winning.

The number of swing states can change based on migration flows and economic trends.

Seven such states can be conditionally divided into two groups for the 2024 election. The first group comprises states in the so-called Rust Belt — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. These states were once highly industrialized, but their economies have deteriorated recently. Previously, they supported Democrats, but growing dissatisfaction with the economic situation has led more residents to lean toward Trump and his promises to revive the industry.

The second group includes swing states in the so-called Sun Belt — Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia. All these states are in the southern US and have a hot climate. Previously, these states traditionally supported Republicans, but in the 2020 election, they favored Democratic candidate Joe Biden. In 2024, Donald Trump aims to reclaim victory in these states.

Each swing state has its unique characteristics. For example, Michigan has the highest percentage of Arab Americans in the US, a demographic that is especially sensitive to Biden and Harris’s support for Israel's actions against Hamas.

Pennsylvania is one of the most socio-economically divided states. The southeast and western parts are home to major cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, where Democrats politically dominate. The rest of the state is primarily rural, with a strong Republican presence.

Arizona, being close to the Mexican border, faces a significant issue with illegal immigration, which is a key issue for Trump.

As across the country, the ratings for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in the swing states are nearly identical, with poll differences well within the margin of error.

Previously, RBC-Ukraine discussed how "October surprises" – unexpected events in the last month before the elections – can impact the ratings of US presidential candidates.