US election exit polls: Process and timing for results
US election polls (Illustrative photo: Getty Images)
Exit poll results for the US election will not be announced in advance in key swing states, where the outcome will be decided.
RBC-Ukraine explains the essence of exit polls and their specifics in the US.
An exit poll is a survey of people who have voted, conducted as they leave the polling station. Since many American voters cast their ballots early or by mail, exit polls in the US have specific characteristics.
Modern exit polling in the US began in the 1970s, conducted by several companies on behalf of American media outlets. Since 1990, most leading American media have formed the National Election Pool (NEP) to jointly commission a single exit poll. Members of the pool include ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC, and Reuters, and they traditionally work with the research firm Edison Research.
How exit polls are conducted in the US
As in other countries, Edison Research employees are stationed at polling places across the US, surveying voters using an anonymous questionnaire. It contains about 20 questions - not only about who they voted for but also about their age, income level, gender, and reasons for choosing a candidate. The selection of respondents is automatic, for example, pollsters may interview every fifth or ninth voter.
How they include those who voted remotely or early
A significant portion of US voters cast their ballots early at special centers or remotely. These voters are also included in exit poll results in two ways.
In states with a high percentage of early voters, exit polling is conducted several weeks before Election Day, as these voters leave the polling center. For voters who voted by mail, multi-mode polling (via phone, text message, and email) is used.
The data from multi-mode surveys and early exit polls are combined with Election Day exit polls to provide a comprehensive picture of all voters, regardless of when they cast their ballots.
How many voters can exit poll cover
On Election Day, over 3,000 Edison Research employees will be stationed at polling places across the US, sending data to the central team office. They will work alongside several hundred phone operators to promptly gather and process survey results.
In the 2020 presidential election, Edison Research surveyed over 100,000 voters. The company also deployed employees to 200 early voting sites across the country. Before Election Day, approximately 30,000 people who voted by mail were interviewed by phone.
In the 2024 election, a similar number of respondents is expected.
Exit poll results in individual states will be allowed to be published at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time (11:00 p.m. Kyiv time) on Election Day. Yet, exit polls will only be announced in states where one candidate has a clear lead and will not be reported in swing states to avoid influencing the voting outcome.
Previously, RBC-Ukraine reported on why early remote voting is important in the US election.
Also, read about how unexpected events in the last month before the election, known as October surprises, could impact the US elections.
For more news on the presidential campaign, candidate ratings, and pitfalls of the US electoral system, see the US Elections section on RBC-Ukraine.
Sources: the official Edison Research website and articles from CNN, DW, and Politico.
