Croatia's PM delivers sobering forecast on Ukraine's EU membership
Photo: Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković (Vitalii Nosach/RBC-Ukraine)
Ukraine’s accession to the European Union by early 2027 is unlikely, given the complexity of the negotiation process and the experience of other countries, stated Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković ahead of the European Council.
Outlook on EU accession
The Croatian Prime Minister said that Zagreb supports Kyiv’s European integration but considers the proposed timeline (January 2027) unrealistic.
He noted that even for Croatia, negotiations lasted six years.
"If no clusters have been opened by now, and we are now basically almost first of May, no enlargement process was so abridged that it can be done in 7 months. Full membership with all the classical procedures in 8 months is unlikely," he said.
Plenković added that he does not want to speculate on specific dates, as Croatia itself had to revise its expected accession timeline several times during its path to the EU.
Financial aid and enlargement
Plenković welcomed the decision by Hungary and Slovakia to remove obstacles to providing Ukraine with a €90 billion loan.
Of this amount, €60 billion is expected to go toward defense, while €30 billion will support the functioning of the state.
The Prime Minister also expressed hope for constructive cooperation with Hungary’s future Prime Minister, Péter Magyar, on further advancing the EU enlargement process.
Security guarantees
Plenković separately stressed the need to provide Ukraine with strong security guarantees that go beyond the European Union.
"Given the experience that Ukraine has with the unfulfillment of the commitments stemming from the Budapest Memorandum 32 years ago, the overall peace deal needs to include security guarantees by strong members of the international community," he said.
Debate over EU membership format
Germany and France recently proposed a light membership format for Ukraine. This option includes certain "symbolic" benefits and a mutual defense clause but does not grant Kyiv voting rights within the bloc.
In turn, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha sharply rejected the idea of phased membership, emphasizing that Ukraine is rapidly fulfilling all requirements for full integration.
At the same time, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Taras Kachka said that, to speed up the process, Kyiv is ready to temporarily give up some EU economic benefits in order to avoid conflicts with neighboring countries.
