Could Russia strike NATO next year? Estonian intelligence weighs in
Illustrative photo: Russia may increase the number of troops on the border with NATO (facebook.com/mod mil uk)
Russia is not capable of launching an attack on NATO this year or next, but is planning a significant military buildup along the alliance’s eastern flank, stated Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service Director Kaupo Rosin, Associated Press reports.
Russia’s plans near NATO borders
According to Estonian intelligence, Russia plans to form new military units and increase troop levels near NATO borders by two to three times compared with prewar levels.
However, the implementation of these plans will largely depend on the outcome of negotiations between Moscow, Washington, and Kyiv aimed at ending the fighting.
Rosin explained that Russia would be forced to keep a "significant portion" of its forces in occupied territories and on its own soil to prevent potential actions by Ukraine.
Putin’s strategy and negotiations
The head of Estonia’s intelligence service stressed that Russian President Vladimir Putin has no intention of ending the invasion of Ukraine, which is now approaching its fourth year. Putin believes he can "outsmart" the United States during talks on ending the war.
According to Rosin, Russian officials are currently stalling for time in negotiations with Washington and are not engaging in any substantive discussions about real cooperation with the United States.
At the same time, the Kremlin is concerned that Europe is rearming and could, within a few years, be capable of conducting military operations against Russia.
Russia’s threat to NATO
Previously, EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius warned that Russia could be ready to test NATO’s defenses within the next two to four years, potentially by 2030.
He said the Baltic states could be among the most likely targets of new Kremlin aggression.
