Active phase of war in Ukraine may end by fall: Zelenskyy's office names key condition
Mykhailo Podolyak, Adviser to Ukraine's Presidential Office (photo: president.gov.ua)
The active phase of the war in Ukraine could end as early as this fall if the summer offensive by Russia completely fails. Under such a scenario, hostilities could be frozen, followed by the lifting of martial law, said Ukraine's Presidential Office adviser Mykhailo Podolyak.
Goals pursued by Putin
According to the presidential office adviser, Kremlin head Vladimir Putin is currently conducting his summer offensive in hopes of capturing new territory. However, it is already clear that the offensive has largely failed.
Mykhailo Podolyak stressed that the Kremlin currently has two key obsessions on the battlefield — the capture of Kupiansk and Mala Tokmachka.
"He is conducting a summer offensive and believes he will manage to capture either Mala Tokmachka or Kupiansk. These are his two obsessions. Accordingly, if this fails, then in the fall there could be, like a model, a halt to the active phase of the war," the adviser said.
War-freeze scenario: What this involves
If the Russian offensive collapses, the theoretical scenario envisioned by the Presidential Office would see Ukraine move into a settlement phase.
It will include several key stages:
- Ceasefire: a complete halt to missile and drone strikes as well as active combat along the front line
- Fixation of positions: establishing a separation line and freezing the conflict
- Monitoring: introducing oversight mechanisms and involving international mediators.
Adviser Podolyak added that such a development will allow Ukraine to lift martial law and begin preparations for elections.
Possible fresh missile strikes by Russia
Recently, Russia has significantly intensified its missile intimidation campaign. In particular, Russian President Vladimir Putin returned to nuclear rhetoric and announced the strengthening of Russia's strategic forces, specifically mentioning the use of Oreshnik ballistic missiles.
Later, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that, according to American and European partners, Russia prepares to attack Ukraine with Oreshnik missiles, and Kyiv is currently carefully verifying the information.
Due to the high risk of strikes, the US Embassy in Kyiv officially warned of a possible large-scale attack within the next 24 hours and urged American citizens to be ready to immediately take shelter if an air raid siren sounds.
